Connect with us

BUSINESS

India to gain in an uncertain world of tariffs, says SBI report

Published

on

India to gain in an uncertain world of tariffs, says SBI report


Representational image of U.S. President Donald Trump
| Photo Credit: Reuters

As tariff action by U.S. President Donald Trump looms large, the State Bank of India (SBI) in a special report said that India however would stand to gain in an increasingly uncertain world of tariffs.

“Trends indicate that the jump in the U.S. economy post-COVID may have been an outlier as a result of policy extravaganza. Long trends indicate a possible downturn in U.S. economy GDP growth along with a slowdown in U.S. exports and consumption,” SBI said in the report.

“The overall value add is showing a declining trend with shrinking Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. High U.S. wages could hold back new investment. Net savings to GDP is also at the lowest level since 2011, the second lowest since 1951,” it said.

“The U.S. debt to GDP ratio shows a secular rising trend… ironically… the U.S. currency showing strength show cyclical trends with falling peaks,” it further said. 

”If the structural adjustment gains traction, then only the U.S. potential GDP trend can see an upward shift. The crowding in of the private sector that follows along with technical progress can add to growth prospects. However, this adjustment will have short-term costs and has lots of ifs and buts,” SBI report.

According to SBI report, the reciprocal tariff may not impact India much.

The decline in exports from India to the U.S. could be in the range of 3-3.5% post reciprocal tariffs, if any, it said.

“We estimated the decline in exports in the range of 3-3.5% which again should be negated through higher export goals across both manufacturing and services fronts, as India has diversified its exports kitty, pitched value addition, exploring alternate areas and works on new routes that transcend from Europe to the USA via the Middle-East, redrawing new supply chain algorithms,” it said. 

Stating that India has signed 13 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in the last five years with its trading partners like Mauritius, UAE, Australia, SBI said these FTAs covering a wide array of topics, such as tariff reduction impacting the entire manufacturing and the agricultural sectors; rules on services trade; digital issues such as data localization; intellectual property rights would help.

“India is negotiating FTAs with the UK, Canada, and the EU, targeting sectors like services, digital trade, and sustainable development. The FTA with the UK alone is expected to increase bilateral trade by $15 billion by 2030,” it said.

Future FTAs will likely focus on enhancing digital trade, with projections indicating that the digital economy could add $1 trillion to India’s GDP by 2025, it added.

Stating that tech supremacy was driving the U.S. dominance, it said a ‘Deep Seek’ moment could unsettle much of it.



Source link

BUSINESS

Dollar rebounds as Trump eases Fed tensions, signals trade thaw with China – Times of India

Published

on

Dollar rebounds as Trump eases Fed tensions, signals trade thaw with China – Times of India


The US dollar rebounded on Wednesday, climbing against major currencies after President Donald Trump eased tensions over the Federal Reserve and trade with China. The shift offered investors much-needed relief, with market sentiment buoyed by Trump’s decision not to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell and speculation that trade tariffs on Chinese goods could be reduced.
The greenback had been under pressure, lingering near three-year lows amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies and repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve. However, comments from both Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a possible thaw in US-China relations and signalled a willingness to engage in deeper economic collaboration.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, said: “I have no intention of firing him,” referring to Powell. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.” The remark came after days of speculation over the Fed’s independence, which had rattled investors and triggered volatility in global markets.
The dollar index rose 0.297% to 99.86 in early Asian trading, before stabilising as cautious optimism returned. The euro slipped 0.86% to $1.132, reversing gains made earlier in the week. Helen Given of Monex USA said the renewed dialogue with China was a key factor: “People are very relieved that there’s potential for discussions between the two countries.”
Bessent reinforced that message in Washington, suggesting any easing of tariffs would not be unilateral and would depend on progress in talks with Beijing. He also voiced strong criticism of the IMF and World Bank but affirmed US support for their roles, distancing the Trump administration from earlier proposals advocating a US withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Trump hinted at further tariffs if no deals were made. “If we don’t have a deal… we’re going to set the tariff,” he said. He also suggested auto tariffs on Canada could increase, despite existing exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The markets responded positively. Dow futures jumped 1.9%, S&P 500 rose 2.6%, and Nasdaq gained 3% before the opening bell. Tech stocks surged, with Tesla up 7% after Elon Musk pledged to focus more on the company and less on Washington politics. Apple and Meta also rose sharply despite EU fines.





Source link

Continue Reading

BUSINESS

U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary

Published

on

U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary


Ajay Seth, Finance Secretary.
| Photo Credit: ANI

The direct hit from tariffs introduced by Donald Trump’s administration on India could shave off between 0.2-0.5 percentage points from GDP growth, the country’s Finance Secretary Ajay Seth said on Wednesday (April 23, 2025).

“Now there is a sign of that…we grow about 6.5% in the current year,” said Mr. Seth, speaking at a Hudson Institute event on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.

“Second order (effects) would be important,” said Mr. Seth, referring to concerns that trade turmoil would slow global growth.

He added that he expected potential growth rate of around 7% could be achieved over the next decade, though India needed to expand its economy at a rate faster than that to achieve its ambitious longer-term targets.

Mr. Seth also said that the delegation from India was in town for further negotiations on trade with the U.S. administration, though he declined to giver further detail on what meetings were planned.



Source link

Continue Reading

BUSINESS

ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India

Published

on

ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India


The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) has decided to review the financial statements of Gensol Engineering Ltd and BluSmart Mobility Pvt Ltd for the financial year 2023–24, following serious allegations of financial misconduct and governance lapses involving the two companies.
The move was confirmed by ICAI president Charanjot Singh Nanda, who said the decision was taken during a board meeting of the Financial Reporting Review Board (FRRB) on Wednesday.
Nanda told PTI that the FRRB decided to undertake a review of the financial statements and the statutory auditor’s report of Gensol Engineering and BluSmart Mobility for the financial year 2023-24.
The FRRB’s mandate includes assessing compliance with accounting standards, standards on auditing, and schedules II and III of the Companies Act, 2013. It also evaluates adherence to various guidance notes and RBI-issued master directions.
Gensol Engineering recently came under regulatory scrutiny after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) issued a market ban on the company’s promoters, Anmol Singh Jaggi and Puneet Singh Jaggi. The order, issued on April 15, alleged that the promoters siphoned off loan funds from the publicly-listed firm for personal gain, raising serious concerns about corporate governance and potential financial misconduct.
BluSmart Mobility, which operates a ride-hailing service, is also promoted by Anmol Singh Jaggi.
In case the FRRB identifies significant accounting irregularities during its review, the matter will be referred to ICAI’s Director Discipline for a detailed investigation. The findings may also be shared with relevant regulatory authorities.
Meanwhile, the ministry of corporate affairs said on April 21 that it will consider taking appropriate action against Gensol Engineering after examining Sebi’s order.
Under the Companies Act, 2013, the ministry has powers to act on corporate violations, which may include inspections by the Registrar of Companies or a probe by the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) in more serious cases.





Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025 Republic Diary. All rights reserved.