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India to gain in an uncertain world of tariffs, says SBI report

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India to gain in an uncertain world of tariffs, says SBI report


Representational image of U.S. President Donald Trump
| Photo Credit: Reuters

As tariff action by U.S. President Donald Trump looms large, the State Bank of India (SBI) in a special report said that India however would stand to gain in an increasingly uncertain world of tariffs.

“Trends indicate that the jump in the U.S. economy post-COVID may have been an outlier as a result of policy extravaganza. Long trends indicate a possible downturn in U.S. economy GDP growth along with a slowdown in U.S. exports and consumption,” SBI said in the report.

“The overall value add is showing a declining trend with shrinking Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. High U.S. wages could hold back new investment. Net savings to GDP is also at the lowest level since 2011, the second lowest since 1951,” it said.

“The U.S. debt to GDP ratio shows a secular rising trend… ironically… the U.S. currency showing strength show cyclical trends with falling peaks,” it further said. 

”If the structural adjustment gains traction, then only the U.S. potential GDP trend can see an upward shift. The crowding in of the private sector that follows along with technical progress can add to growth prospects. However, this adjustment will have short-term costs and has lots of ifs and buts,” SBI report.

According to SBI report, the reciprocal tariff may not impact India much.

The decline in exports from India to the U.S. could be in the range of 3-3.5% post reciprocal tariffs, if any, it said.

“We estimated the decline in exports in the range of 3-3.5% which again should be negated through higher export goals across both manufacturing and services fronts, as India has diversified its exports kitty, pitched value addition, exploring alternate areas and works on new routes that transcend from Europe to the USA via the Middle-East, redrawing new supply chain algorithms,” it said. 

Stating that India has signed 13 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in the last five years with its trading partners like Mauritius, UAE, Australia, SBI said these FTAs covering a wide array of topics, such as tariff reduction impacting the entire manufacturing and the agricultural sectors; rules on services trade; digital issues such as data localization; intellectual property rights would help.

“India is negotiating FTAs with the UK, Canada, and the EU, targeting sectors like services, digital trade, and sustainable development. The FTA with the UK alone is expected to increase bilateral trade by $15 billion by 2030,” it said.

Future FTAs will likely focus on enhancing digital trade, with projections indicating that the digital economy could add $1 trillion to India’s GDP by 2025, it added.

Stating that tech supremacy was driving the U.S. dominance, it said a ‘Deep Seek’ moment could unsettle much of it.



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‘Gold lasts 5 generations’: Harsh Goenka’s witty post on wife’s gold buying is a lesson in investment strategy | India-Business News – Times of India

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Gold prices are hitting lifetime highs and India Inc veterans have been hailing Indian homemakers for their wisdom in storing the yellow metal. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) industrialist Harsh Goenka lauded his wife’s gold investment strategy. This comes at a time when gold prices have crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark.
The RPG group chairman took to X, and shared a conversation with his spouse. The post said, ”10 years ago, I bought a car for ₹8 lakh. She bought gold for ₹8 lakh. Today, the car is worth ₹1.5 lakh. Her gold is worth ₹32 lakh.”
He further added that wives are smarter.
Sharing another conversation, he wrote on X, “I said, ‘Let’s skip gold and go on a vacation?’ She replied, ‘Vacation lasts 5 days. Gold lasts 5 generations.’ I bought a phone for ₹1 lakh. She bought gold. Now, the phone’s worth ₹8,000. Her gold is ₹2 lakh.”
Raj Nayak, an influencer, commented on Goenka’s post, saying,”Gold may last generations. But we don’t.That five day vacation? It turns into stories, smiles, and moments that lights up your soul for a lifetime.The phone might be worth ₹8K now, but that late night call to your son, daughter, or mother… that photo you clicked by the ocean… that memory? Priceless.You can buy what appreciates in value, or you can invest in what makes you feel alive.”
A few days ago Uday Kotak, Founder & Director, Kotak Mahindra Bank had also hailed Indian housewives as the ‘smartest fund managers’. “The performance of gold over time highlights that the Indian housewife is the smartest fund manager in the world. Governments, central banks, economists, who support pump priming, high deficit funding, may need to take a leaf from India, a net importer of store of value forever!,” he wrote on X.
Gold MCX futures have surpassed Rs 1 lakh, marking an unprecedented milestone. Gold continues to serve as a reliable investment during periods of market instability. The rise in gold prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties, growing tensions between China and the US, whilst a declining dollar has further strengthened this upward trend.
Market analysts suggest that current valuations reflect heightened geopolitical risks, influenced by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and concerns about economic stagnation with inflation. These factors are expected to contribute to additional gains in gold prices.
Global central banks have consistently increased their gold acquisitions over multiple quarters, building their reserves to record levels. Notably, the RBI has been actively purchasing gold and relocating substantial amounts back to Indian territory.





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Stock markets decline in early trade after 7-day rally

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Representative image
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Thursday (April 23, 2025) amid profit-taking after a seven-day rally and muted trend in Asian markets.

The 30-share BSE benchmark declined 242.01 points to 79,874.48 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went down by 72.3 points to 24,256.65.

In the past seven trading days, the BSE benchmark gauge zoomed 6,269.34 points or 8.48% and the Nifty jumped 1,929.8 points or 8.61%.

From the Sensex firms, Eternal, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.

IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Nestle, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and Tata Motors were among the gainers.

In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi index, Shanghai SSE Composite, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were trading lower while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 quoted in the positive territory.

U.S. markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday (April 23, 2025). Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.50%, S&P 500 surged 1.67% and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.07 per cent.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.12% to $66.20 a barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹3,332.93 crore on Wednesday (April 23, 2025), according to exchange data.

The BSE benchmark jumped 520.90 points or 0.65% to settle at 80,116.49, the highest closing level since December 18, on Wednesday (April 23, 2025). The Nifty rallied 161.70 points or 0.67% to 24,328.95.



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Rupee falls 22 paise to 85.67 against U.S. dollar in early trade

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 The rupee depreciated 22 paise to 85.67 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (April 24, 2025).
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee depreciated 22 paise to 85.67 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (April 24, 2025), weighed down by negative domestic equities amid significant geopolitical escalation that has injected fresh uncertainty into the regional risk perception.

Forex traders said heightened geopolitical tensions, following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir weighed on market sentiment.

On the global front, the U.S. dollar index surged from its recent low of 97.92 to 99.94, marking a notable comeback driven by optimism around a potential de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, they added.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 85.60 and fell to an intraday low of 85.67 against the greenback, registering a loss of 22 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated 26 paise and settled for the day at 85.45 against the U.S. dollar.

“Historical patterns suggest that such events initially trigger rupee depreciation due to risk aversion. During the 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks, the rupee weakened initially but rebounded following decisive Indian responses, underscoring that investor confidence hinges on India’s strategic stance post-incident,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

India on Wednesday (April 23, 2025) downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and announced a raft of measures, including expulsion of Pakistani military attaches, suspension of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, and immediate shutting down of the Attari land-transit post in view of the cross-border links to the horrific Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.17% at 99.67.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.09% at $66.21 per barrel in futures trade.

“The near-term rupee outlook remains clouded by dollar strength and rising uncertainties. Technically, the rupee is likely to face support at the 85.20 level and resistance at the 85.50 level; a breach of the resistance could pave the way towards 85.80 levels,” Pabari said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex slumped 281.71 points or 0.35% to 79,834.78, while the Nifty fell 77.70 points or 0.32% to 24,251.25.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹3,332.93 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.



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