New Delhi: As protests continue to spread across Iranian cities, US President Donald Trump has stepped into the moment with warnings of possible military action. He insists that his intent is to help people on the streets. The demonstrations, which began late last month, have drawn thousands of Iranians protesting economic hardship, rising prices and a collapsing currency.
Posting on Truth Social on Saturday, the US president wrote, “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”
He reiterated the same in subsequent public statements, claiming that he supports protesters who are speaking out against Iran’s leadership.
What these statements leave out is the impact of decades of US-led sanctions on Iran, many of which were expanded under Trump. Those sanctions weakened the economy over time and helped create the conditions that led to the ongoing unrest.
How The Protests Began
The protests erupted on December 28, 2025, starting from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar after Iran’s currency plunged to a historic low against the US dollar. Shopkeepers closed their stores and gathered to protest soaring prices that have made daily survival increasingly difficult.
From Tehran, the movement spread rapidly to other provinces, turning into a broader challenge to Iran’s leadership.
By Monday, the Iranian rial was trading at more than 1.4 million to the dollar. This marked a dramatic fall from about 700,000 in January 2025 and roughly 900,000 by the middle of last year.
The currency collapse has driven inflation higher. Food prices across the country now average 72 percent higher than a year ago, placing enormous pressure on households.
A Long History Of Sanctions
Iran is among the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The roots of these measures stretch back to 1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile and Iran was declared an Islamic republic following a referendum.
That same year, the United States imposed its first sanctions after Iranian students stormed the US embassy in Tehran and took American diplomats hostage.
The Islamic revolution had toppled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whose rule allegedly relied on repression and torture without democratic legitimacy. The United States had backed the Shah and had earlier helped remove Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in a 1953 coup, which was supported by American and British intelligence.
In 1979, Washington halted oil imports from Iran, froze $12 billion in Iranian assets and banned most Iranian goods from entering the United States. Only limited exceptions such as food, informational material and certain carpets were allowed to enter the United States.
In 1995, President Bill Clinton issued executive orders barring US companies from investing in Iran’s oil and gas sector and from trading with the country. A year later, the Congress required sanctions on foreign companies investing more than $20 million annually in Iran’s energy industry.
In December 2006, the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear-related trade and froze assets of individuals and firms linked to the programme. These measures aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear capacity, even as uranium enrichment resumed in late 2005 after an earlier halt.
The sanctions expanded in subsequent years, with the European Union following suit.
In 2015, Iran reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the United States, the European Union (EU), China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom. The deal restricted uranium enrichment, shut down activity at the Fordow nuclear facility and allowed only peaceful nuclear development in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
Tehran agreed to halt enrichment at Fordow for 15 years and convert the site into a nuclear, physics and technology centre.
In 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and restored all sanctions lifted under the agreement.
A year later, his administration designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and imposed further sanctions on petrochemicals, metals such as steel, aluminium and copper, along with senior Iranian officials. These steps formed part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
On January 3, 2020, the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC’s Quds Force, in a drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq. Additional sanctions followed.
Between 2021 and 2025, the then Biden administration kept most US sanctions in place.
In September 2025, UN sanctions were reinstated after the Security Council voted against permanently lifting economic restrictions tied to Iran’s nuclear programme.
Economic Damage Over Time
Sanctions have left deep marks on Iran’s economy. World Bank data shows that the country’s GDP per capita fell from more than $8,000 in 2012 to around $6,000 by 2017 and dropped further to just over $5,000 by 2024.
The steepest declines followed the reimposition of US sanctions from 2018 onward, which reduced oil exports and blocked access to global financial systems.
Oil shipments fell by 60 to 80 percent after sanctions returned. Tehran exported about 2.2 million barrels per day in 2011. By 2020, it had dropped to just over 400,000 barrels per day.
Exports recovered slowly to around 1.5 million barrels per day by 2025, which was still far below pre-2018 levels.
The rial’s collapse has been equally severe. In the mid-2010s, a dollar bought only tens of thousands of rials. By 2025, it bought several hundred thousand. Today, it buys more than one million.
Sanctions blocked much of Iran’s export capacity, while the weaker currency made imports expensive, pushed inflation higher and drained investor confidence. Limited access to dollars further restricted international trade.
Everyday Costs
One of the most visible effects has been in aviation. After sanctions began in 1979, Iran struggled to import aircraft and spare parts. Plane crashes surged through the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s.
Between 1979 and 2023, more than 2,000 people died in Iranian plane crashes, according to the Bureau of Aircraft Accident Archives.
Sanctions also changed Iran’s economy into what analysts describe as a “sanctions economy”. Trade moved into shadow networks, oil sales relied on intermediaries and transparency eroded.
Impact On People
Experts say Iran’s middle class has suffered the most. Data from comparable countries models Iran’s economy between 2012 and 2019. Sanctions caused the middle class to shrink.
By 2012, the gap between the potential and actual size of the middle class reached 17 percentage points. After Trump’s maximum pressure campaign began, that gap widened to 28 points.
Sanctions led directly to the rial’s collapse, devastating fixed-income earners such as teachers and civil servants, many of whom slipped into working poverty. Shrinking formal businesses pushed workers into informal jobs with lower pay and fewer protections.
Research published in 2020 linked UN sanctions to a drop in life expectancy of 1.2 to 1.4 years in affected countries, with women suffering disproportionately.
Since 1970, EU and US sanctions have been linked to 38 million deaths worldwide, according to research released last year.
In Iran, sanctions disrupted medicine imports, sending prices for essential drugs such as anti-seizure medication up by as much as 300 percent.
Environmental damage followed as well. Sanctions slowed clean-fuel adoption and green innovation, worsening air pollution in cities like Tehran and harming children’s cognitive development.
As protests continue and Trump repeats his claim of wanting to help Iranians, the long economic shadow of sanctions is deeply woven into the crisis playing out on Iran’s streets.
