NEW DELHI: The Indian rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar in the near term, driven by a combination of improving domestic fundamentals and a supportive global environment, according to a recent report by Bank of Baroda.
The report, as per ANI, projects the rupee to trade in the range of 84 to 85 per US dollar over the coming days.
“We expect INR to trade with an appreciating bias in the near-term in the range of 84-85/US dollar,” the bank noted in its currency outlook. However, it also warned that “escalation in US-China trade relations poses a significant risk to our view.”
The rupee has already gained ground in recent months. It appreciated by 1.1 per cent in April 2025, following a sharper rise of 2.4 per cent in March. A key driver of this upward movement has been the broad weakness in the US dollar, which has come under pressure due to a sluggish economic outlook in the United States.
Additionally, falling global crude oil prices have eased import cost pressures for India, further supporting the domestic currency.
Improving foreign investor sentiment has also played a critical role. After witnessing sustained outflows in the first quarter of 2025, April saw a turnaround with positive equity inflows returning to Indian markets.
This resurgence in foreign investment reflects a broader shift in investor preference towards emerging markets like India.
The report highlighted that US officials have signalled progress in trade talks with key partners, helping cool global tensions and revive market confidence. This softer stance on tariffs has helped improve risk appetite across global financial markets.
Bank of Baroda added that if this trend persists, emerging market assets, including India’s, could see a sustained recovery in foreign portfolio investment. India’s strong macroeconomic position, stable political environment, and promising growth outlook make it an attractive investment destination, the report said.
Still, the outlook remains sensitive to geopolitical developments. “Any deterioration in global trade relations could impact investor sentiment and weigh on the rupee,” the bank cautioned.

NEW DELHI: Private capital expenditure (capex) in India remained weak in the fourth quarter of FY25, even as overall project announcements surged, according to a report by Avendus Spark.
While new project announcements across the public and private sectors rose by 22.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 18 trillion in Q4FY25, the private sector contributed only marginally to this growth, reported news agency ANI.
The report said, “Private capex remains sluggish in Q4FY25…New project announcements, encompassing both public and private sectors, surged approximately 22.7 per cent to Rs 18tn in Q4FY25.” However, it added that private project announcements grew by just 4 per cent YoY during the quarter and even declined 9 per cent for the full fiscal year, touching Rs 27 trillion. This downturn was largely due to subdued activity in the services and construction/real estate sectors.
The muted sentiment was attributed to “weak domestic consumer demand and rising global macro uncertainty,” which has triggered delays and downsizing in capex plans. According to the report, investor caution has also been amplified by ongoing concerns over US tariff regimes and potential import surges from China.
While the overall outlook remained muted, some segments showed resilience. The electricity and renewable energy sectors recorded a 55 per cent increase in private project announcements. Manufacturing announcements dropped 5 per cent YoY, and Services plunged 18 per cent. Yet, sub-segments such as textiles, food & agro, metals and transport equipment registered strong growth.
However, private project completions also declined sharply. In Q4FY25, completed private projects fell 41 per cent YoY to Rs 965 billion. This included a 30 per cent drop in manufacturing completions, a 70 per cent fall in services, and an 89 per cent slump in construction and real Estate.
For FY25 as a whole, private completions were down 31 per cent YoY at Rs 2.5 trillion compared to Rs 3.6 trillion in FY24.
Some bright spots did emerge. Mining project completions soared 732 per cent YoY to Rs 25 billion, up from just Rs 3 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, electricity investments continued to rise, reaching Rs 5.6 trillion in Q4FY25.
A few days back, a government survey cited by news agency PTI also indicated a conservative capex approach for FY26.
The ministry of statistics & programme implementation projected a 25 per cent drop in intended private capex to Rs 4.88 lakh crore for FY26 from Rs 6.56 lakh crore in FY25. The Forward-Looking Survey attributed this to a cautious stance among enterprises amid lingering uncertainties.
Together, the findings point to a challenging investment environment for private players, with optimism limited to select sectors like energy and mining.

National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC).
| Photo Credit: Special Arrangement

State-owned NMDC reported iron ore production rose nearly 15% in April at 4 million tonnes from the 3.48 MT a year earlier.

Sales for the month increased almost 3% to 3.63 MT (3.53 MT), the company said in a filing on Friday.

In March, amid protest by workers over wages for about two weeks, NMDC had reported an almost 27% decline in the production of the key raw material for steel at 3.55 MT (4.86 MT). Sales, however, were higher by more than 6% at 4.21 MT (3.96 MT).

In FY25, iron ore production of the company declined more than 2% to 44.04 MT (45.2 MT) and sales marginally lower at 44.40 MT (44.48 MT).

The April month volumes are the highest thus far, since inception, NMDC said in a release.

“Our record-breaking April performance, coupled with best — ever despatch figures from our major iron ore mines – Kirandul, Bacheli and Donimalai with a [YoY] growth of 12%, 4% and 88% respectively solidifies our leadership position. It sets a strong foundation for achieving our ambitious target of becoming 100 million tonne mining company by 2030,” CMD Amitava Mukherjee said.

In April, NMDC said achieved its highest-ever monthly despatch, marking a 23% increase YoY. The Bacheli Complex recorded its best-ever road despatch at 2.22 lakh tonnes (LT), which is 25% higher. The company’s pellet production touched an all-time high of 0.23 lakh tonnes, surpassing the previous April record set in 2018.

The company said it remains dedicated to securing raw materials and meeting India’s rising steel demand.