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Despite global challenges, India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in fiscal 2026: CRISIL – The Times of India

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Despite global challenges, India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in fiscal 2026: CRISIL – The Times of India


India’s real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 6.5 per cent for the 2026 fiscal, despite global uncertainties due to geopolitical shifts and trade tensions triggered by US tariff, a report by CRISIL Intelligence revealed on Thursday.
The credit rating agency’s forecast depends on two major factors: a normal monsoon and stable commodity prices, both of which are expected to keep food inflation in check.
The agency predicted that cooling food inflation, tax benefits from the Union Budget 2025-26, and lower borrowing costs will boost discretionary consumer spending. The report also noted that India’s economic growth would gradually return to pre-pandemic levels as the impact of fiscal stimulus will fade and the high-base effect subsides.
Despite these adjustments, high-frequency data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggested that the country would continue to lead among major global economies.
“India’s resilience is being tested again,” said Amish Mehta, managing director and CEO of CRISIL Ltd. “Over the past few years, we have built safeguards against external shocks, including strong economic growth, a low current account deficit, manageable external public debt, and ample forex reserves. These provide policymakers with flexibility. While challenges remain, domestic demand—both rural and urban—will be crucial for short-term growth.”
The MD further added that sustained investment and efficiency improvements will support medium-term expansion. “We expect both manufacturing and services to drive growth through fiscal 2031,” he said.
Sector-wise growth
CRISIL projected that the manufacturing sector will grow 9 per cent every year between fiscal 2025 and 2031, up from 6 per cent in the pre-pandemic decade. The services sector, on the other hand, is expected to undergo slower growth, though it will continue to be the primary driver of growth.
As a result, the share of manufacturing in GDP is expected to rise from 17 per cent in fiscal 2025 to 20 per cent by 2031.
The report also anticipated further softening of food inflation in fiscal 2026, bringing down overall inflation levels. Inflation had already eased in fiscal 2025 due to lower non-food inflation, though food prices had risen.
Additionally, the rating agency also expected another 50-75 basis point rate cut in the next fiscal year.
India has strengthened its growth premium over advanced economies through infrastructure expansion and economic reforms, said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL Ltd.
“Healthy GDP growth, a low current account deficit and adequate forex reserves provide a buffer and policy flexibility but do not insulate the country from external shocks. The risks to the growth forecast of 6.5% are therefore tilted to the downside given elevated uncertainty due to the US-led tariff war,” Joshi added.
The report also highlighted the government’s sharp focus on expanding capabilities in emerging industries, increasing localisation, and strengthening key value chains. Initiatives such as Make in India, the phased manufacturing programme, and the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme are already yielding positive results across sectors.
However, CRISIL also warned that the global trade environment continues to pose a challenge. Ongoing uncertainties around tariffs and trade policies could make it harder for India to acquire advanced technologies, scale up industries, and boost exports.





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Novo Nordisk to continue India’s largest insulin brand Mixtard supply in vials – Times of India

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Novo Nordisk to continue India’s largest insulin brand Mixtard supply in vials – Times of India


Novo Nordisk has stated that its flagship insulin brand Mixtard will continue to be available in India in vial form, even as the company phases out other delivery formats such as Penfill cartridges. The announcement comes amid widespread concern over the discontinuation of some of the country’s most-used insulin products.
Responding to TOI reports that it was withdrawing Mixtard—India’s top-selling insulin brand with annual sales of over Rs 800 crore, Novo Nordisk said in a statement. “In order to meet increasing patient demand and ensure a stable supply of our medicines, we have decided to consolidate our insulin portfolio. This will create space needed in our global manufacturing network,” “Hence, in this process, we are phasing out the Penfill.We acknowledge that this will be disruptive to people living with diabetes who rely on our treatments. However, by doing this now, we will increase the number of patients we reach with our insulin portfolio by many millions in the next decade,” it added.
This comes after reports that the Danish drugmaker was discontinuing Human Mixtard—India’s largest-selling insulin brand—and other older-generation insulins from the market. The TOI report noted that Human Mixtard, a Rs 800 crore brand despite being under price control, along with products like Actrapid, Insulatard, Insulin Detemir, Levemir, and Xultophy, would no longer be available in popular delivery formats such as pre-filled pens and cartridges (Penfill and FlexPen).
Read report: Novo Nordisk to phase out country’s largest insulin brand
The Danish pharmaceutical giant reassured patients that the insulin, along with other human insulins like Actrapid and Insulatard, will still be accessible in vials across India. These vials are administered through traditional syringes.
According to documents cited in the earlier report, Novo Nordisk had informed its marketing partner Abbott India that the products would be withdrawn once current stocks were exhausted, a process expected to take around six months. The move is reportedly part of the company’s global strategy to shift focus toward newer, more profitable treatments such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which it plans to introduce in the Indian market this year. As part of this shift, earlier-generation insulin products are being gradually phased out worldwide.





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Google-parent Alphabet quarterly earnings lifted by cloud and AI

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Google-parent Alphabet quarterly earnings lifted by cloud and AI


Google and rivals are spending billions of dollars on data centres and more for AI [File]
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Google parent Alphabet on Thursday reported profit of $34.5 billion in the recently ended quarter, powered by its cloud computing and artificial intelligence operations.

Overall revenue at Alphabet grew 12% to $90.2 billion compared to the same period a year earlier, while revenue for the cloud unit grew 28% to $12.3 billion, according to the tech giant.

Alphabet chief executive Sundar Pichai said the strong quarterly results reflect healthy growth and momentum across the business.

“Underpinning this growth is our unique full stack approach to AI,” Pichai said in an earnings release.

He touted the latest Gemini software as Alphabet’s most intelligent AI model and an “extraordinary foundation” for the Silicon Valley company’s innovation.

Alphabet shares were up more than 3% in after-market trades that followed the release of the earnings figures.

“Cloud grew rapidly with significant demand for our solutions,” Pichai said of Alphabet’s services and tools hosted at data centres.

Investors have been watching closely to see whether the tech giant may be pouring too much money into artificial intelligence.

“Cloud’s growth indicates that Google AI product mix continues to thrive despite heightened competition,” said Emarketer principal analyst Yory Wurmser.

Google and rivals are spending billions of dollars on data centres and more for AI, while the rise of lower-cost model DeepSeek from China raises questions about how much needs to be spent.

Meanwhile the online ad business that churns out the cash Google invests in its future could be neutered due to a defeat in a US antitrust case.

US government attorneys are urging a federal judge to make Google spin off its Chrome browser, arguing artificial intelligence is poised to ramp up the company’s online search dominance.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) is arguing its position before District Judge Amit Mehta, who is considering “remedies” after making a landmark decision last year that Google maintained an illegal monopoly in online search.

“Nothing less than the future of the internet is at stake here,” Assistant Attorney General Gail Slater said prior to the start of the hearings this week in Washington.

“If Google’s conduct is not remedied, it will control much of the internet for the next decade and not just in internet search, but in new technologies like artificial intelligence.”

Google countered in the case that the United States has gone way beyond the scope of the suit by recommending a spinoff of its widely used Chrome, and holding open the option to force a sale of its Android mobile operating system.

The legal case focused on Google’s agreements with partners such as Apple and Samsung to distribute its search tools, noted Google president of global affairs Kent Walker.

“The DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America’s global technology leadership,” Walker wrote in a blog post.

In another legal battle, a different US judge ruled this month that Google wielded monopoly power in the online ad technology market in a legal blow that could rattle the tech giant’s revenue engine.

The federal government and more than a dozen US states filed the antitrust suit against Google, accusing it of acting illegally to dominate major sectors of digital advertising.

District Court Judge Leonie Brinkema ruled that Google built an illegal monopoly over ad software and tools used by publishers.

“Google has willfully engaged in a series of anticompetitive acts to acquire and maintain monopoly power in the publisher ad server and ad exchange markets for open-web display advertising,” Brinkema said in her ruling.

Online advertising is the driving engine of Google’s fortune and pays for widely used online services like Maps, Gmail, and search offered free.

Combined, the courtroom defeats have the potential to leave Google split up and its influence curbed.

Google said it is appealing both rulings.



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Government open to some duty-free US auto imports like 1,600cc bikes – Times of India

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Government open to some duty-free US auto imports like 1,600cc bikes – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Government is open to offering duty-free access to certain automobiles imported from the US, such as bikes with over 1,600cc engine capacity, if it can secure a favourable deal in some areas of interest.Some of the concessions, which are still being discussed internally, may, however, come with quotas. This means the lower or zero duty benefit may be available only for a certain number of units imported under the proposed bilateral trade agreement.
The US has mounted immense pressure on India to lower tariffs on automobiles, whiskey and farm products, arguing that high import duties are holding up American exports. While India slashed the customs duty on products, such as high-end bikes and bourbon in Feb, the Donald Trump administration is not satisfied and is pushing for further cuts. Harley Davidson bikes and Tesla cars are on top of Trump’s priority list, especially with Elon Musk being a key aide of the American President.

US President Donald Trump

Musk has been lobbying with India to lower import duties, something that the government refused to do earlier. However, last year, it came up with a new policy that offered 15% tariffs for a limited period, provided companies using the window set up a manufacturing facility. The detailed guidelines are expected only in a few weeks as inter-ministerial consultations are currently underway. A steep tariff reduction will, however, impact investment plans.
Faced with the threat of reciprocal tariffs, the commerce department, which is leading negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement, is holding consultations with other government departments and ministries. These, in turn, are seeking feedback from industry and other stakeholders. While sectoral negotiations are yet to commence, a team led by India’s chief negotiator, Rajesh Agrawal, is currently in Washington to iron out pending issues and explore the possibility of an “early tranche.

Hoping to avoid tariff terrain

Originally, Trump and PM Narendra Modi agreed to have a first tranche by autumn (Sept-Oct), covering import duty on goods, non-tariff barriers, and ways to strengthen the supply chain. India is hoping that in return for concessions offered by it, the Trump administration will not impose the 26% reciprocal tariffs, which have been paused for 90 days, while also lowering duties for labour-intensive products, such as textiles and leather goods shipped from the country.





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