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Despite global challenges, India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in fiscal 2026: CRISIL – The Times of India

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Despite global challenges, India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in fiscal 2026: CRISIL – The Times of India


India’s real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 6.5 per cent for the 2026 fiscal, despite global uncertainties due to geopolitical shifts and trade tensions triggered by US tariff, a report by CRISIL Intelligence revealed on Thursday.
The credit rating agency’s forecast depends on two major factors: a normal monsoon and stable commodity prices, both of which are expected to keep food inflation in check.
The agency predicted that cooling food inflation, tax benefits from the Union Budget 2025-26, and lower borrowing costs will boost discretionary consumer spending. The report also noted that India’s economic growth would gradually return to pre-pandemic levels as the impact of fiscal stimulus will fade and the high-base effect subsides.
Despite these adjustments, high-frequency data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggested that the country would continue to lead among major global economies.
“India’s resilience is being tested again,” said Amish Mehta, managing director and CEO of CRISIL Ltd. “Over the past few years, we have built safeguards against external shocks, including strong economic growth, a low current account deficit, manageable external public debt, and ample forex reserves. These provide policymakers with flexibility. While challenges remain, domestic demand—both rural and urban—will be crucial for short-term growth.”
The MD further added that sustained investment and efficiency improvements will support medium-term expansion. “We expect both manufacturing and services to drive growth through fiscal 2031,” he said.
Sector-wise growth
CRISIL projected that the manufacturing sector will grow 9 per cent every year between fiscal 2025 and 2031, up from 6 per cent in the pre-pandemic decade. The services sector, on the other hand, is expected to undergo slower growth, though it will continue to be the primary driver of growth.
As a result, the share of manufacturing in GDP is expected to rise from 17 per cent in fiscal 2025 to 20 per cent by 2031.
The report also anticipated further softening of food inflation in fiscal 2026, bringing down overall inflation levels. Inflation had already eased in fiscal 2025 due to lower non-food inflation, though food prices had risen.
Additionally, the rating agency also expected another 50-75 basis point rate cut in the next fiscal year.
India has strengthened its growth premium over advanced economies through infrastructure expansion and economic reforms, said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL Ltd.
“Healthy GDP growth, a low current account deficit and adequate forex reserves provide a buffer and policy flexibility but do not insulate the country from external shocks. The risks to the growth forecast of 6.5% are therefore tilted to the downside given elevated uncertainty due to the US-led tariff war,” Joshi added.
The report also highlighted the government’s sharp focus on expanding capabilities in emerging industries, increasing localisation, and strengthening key value chains. Initiatives such as Make in India, the phased manufacturing programme, and the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme are already yielding positive results across sectors.
However, CRISIL also warned that the global trade environment continues to pose a challenge. Ongoing uncertainties around tariffs and trade policies could make it harder for India to acquire advanced technologies, scale up industries, and boost exports.





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Government open to some duty-free US auto imports like 1,600cc bikes – Times of India

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NEW DELHI: Government is open to offering duty-free access to certain automobiles imported from the US, such as bikes with over 1,600cc engine capacity, if it can secure a favourable deal in some areas of interest.Some of the concessions, which are still being discussed internally, may, however, come with quotas. This means the lower or zero duty benefit may be available only for a certain number of units imported under the proposed bilateral trade agreement.
The US has mounted immense pressure on India to lower tariffs on automobiles, whiskey and farm products, arguing that high import duties are holding up American exports. While India slashed the customs duty on products, such as high-end bikes and bourbon in Feb, the Donald Trump administration is not satisfied and is pushing for further cuts. Harley Davidson bikes and Tesla cars are on top of Trump’s priority list, especially with Elon Musk being a key aide of the American President.

Musk has been lobbying with India to lower import duties, something that the government refused to do earlier. However, last year, it came up with a new policy that offered 15% tariffs for a limited period, provided companies using the window set up a manufacturing facility. The detailed guidelines are expected only in a few weeks as inter-ministerial consultations are currently underway. A steep tariff reduction will, however, impact investment plans.
Faced with the threat of reciprocal tariffs, the commerce department, which is leading negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement, is holding consultations with other government departments and ministries. These, in turn, are seeking feedback from industry and other stakeholders. While sectoral negotiations are yet to commence, a team led by India’s chief negotiator, Rajesh Agrawal, is currently in Washington to iron out pending issues and explore the possibility of an “early tranche.”

Originally, Trump and PM Narendra Modi agreed to have a first tranche by autumn (Sept-Oct), covering import duty on goods, non-tariff barriers, and ways to strengthen the supply chain. India is hoping that in return for concessions offered by it, the Trump administration will not impose the 26% reciprocal tariffs, which have been paused for 90 days, while also lowering duties for labour-intensive products, such as textiles and leather goods shipped from the country.





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Pune company loses Rs 6.5 crore in cyber fraud – Times of India

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PUNE: Man-in-the-Middle (MitM) cyber frauds cheated a Pune-based firm, dealing in IT services and imports of dry fruits, out of Rs 6.5 crore on March 27.
MitM is a type of cyber fraud in which an attacker intercepts and relays communication between two parties, making it appear as if they are communicating directly.
As per the police complaint, the 39-year-old company director received an email on the company ID purportedly from a US firm he did business with about a payment request. He initiated the transaction believing the email request was legitimate. But later, when he contacted officials of the other firm, they denied receiving the amount. He checked the email he had received and discovered fraudsters had made two alterations – they changed one letter in the other firm’s email address and its bank account number.





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LIC to expedite claim settlements of Pahalgam terror victims

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Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) on Thursday (April 24, 2025) announced that it will expedite claim settlements of Pahalgam terror attack victims in an effort to provide financial relief to their families.

Expressing deep grief over the death of innocent citizens in the terrorist attack, CEO and MD Siddharta Mohanty said LIC has decided to offer concessions to mitigate the hardships of the claimants.

In lieu of death certificates, any evidence in government records of death of the policyholder due to the terrorist attack or any compensation paid by the Union or State governments will be accepted as proof of death. All efforts will be taken to ensure that the claimants are reached out to and claims settled expeditiously to the affected families,” he said in a release.

For assistance, the claimants may contact the nearest LIC branch, division, or customer zones. They may also call LIC call centre at 022 68276827, the company said.

Insurance aggregator Policybazaar said it would like to offer a job to a family member in any of the Policybazaar or Paisabazaar offices located across India or sponsor a child’s education for every impacted Indian family in Pahalgam. “It is a very small gesture towards creating a social security cover for these families,” co-founder Alok Bansal said in a social media post.



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