Before polls opened on April 28, Mark Carney had already staged a remarkable comeback. In mid-January, the Conservatives held a commanding 27-point lead over the Liberals. But by election night, Carney’s party had surged to 168 seats, just four shy of the 172 needed for a majority. Some projections, including one by EKOS on April 27, had even forecast the Liberals crossing that crucial threshold.
In the event, however, they fell four seats short. A late-campaign softening of President Trump’s anti-Canada rhetoric helped narrow Carney’s early advantage and allowed Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives to close the gap to a mere two percentage points in the popular vote.

Julie Simmons of the University of Guelph, while speaking to TimesofIndia.com, argues that the fading of outside pressure and Canada’s voting system explain why a once-likely majority didn’t happen.

A majority in sight

By the final week of campaigning, national trackers regularly showed the Liberals polling around 44 per cent to the Conservatives’ 39 per cent.

Julie Simmons believes Carney’s credentials fuelled that surge: “It was in large part to the coalescing of support around the new leader (Carney), who seemed more qualified, as a former Bank of Canada governor, than the career politician (Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre) to take on Donald Trump and counter the President’s musings about Canada becoming the 51st state. Carney’s message of ‘Canada Strong’ resonated with anxious voters.”

Trump’s tonal shift tightens the contest

Yet just as the Liberals appeared poised for a slim majority, the external threat that underpinned Carney’s appeal began to recede. Simmons notes that after a private phone call between Carney and Trump, the US president largely dropped his public threats against Canada.
“Poilievre returned to his messages about being tough on crime, increasing housing supply, and offering tax cuts to Canadians. Some voters were more receptive to these messages because the chaos south of the border seemed muted,” Simmons said.
A Reuters poll on 24 April showed the race tightening to within 3.6 points as domestic issues reclaimed prominence. Without the drumbeat of tariffs and annexation talk, voters drifted back towards Conservative-style platforms enough to clip Carney’s majority hopes.

Parliamentary arithmetic

When the final count was announced, the Liberals led the popular vote by only 43 per cent to 41 per cent, a margin too slim to translate into a majority under first-past-the-post. Their slightly more “efficient” vote distribution yielded a 10–15 seat edge over the Conservatives, but still left Carney four seats short of the 172-seat mark.
As Simmons explains, “Were the campaign to have continued for a week or two more, it is possible that the gap between Poilievre and Carney would have narrowed entirely, and we may have had a Conservative minority government.”

What a minority government for Carney means

Economists Jimmy Jean and Randall Bartlett at Desjardins told Reuters that a confirmed Liberal minority will force Carney into negotiations with opposition parties, especially the New Democratic Party, to enact his agenda.
“If a minority Liberal win is confirmed, Prime Minister Mark Carney will need to negotiate with the opposition parties to implement his policy agenda,” they said. “In terms of executing the Liberal Party platform, this configuration could lean toward the social and cultural measures, and against broad tax cuts and fossil-fuel development.”
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, warned that political fragmentation could limit fiscal stimulus just as Canada faces rising recession risks and tougher US trade talks. “Canada’s likely Liberal minority outcome adds to uncertainty at a delicate time,” she said
With 168 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, Carney must now navigate a minority parliament. He is expected to seek confidence and supply support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois, and to shepherd through priorities such as reducing interprovincial trade barriers, refining immigration levels and diversifying Canada’s trade portfolio beyond the United States.
In the end, Carney’s “Canada Strong” message helped the Liberals claw back from a polling disaster, but not quite to a majority. Voters endorsed his crisis-management credentials, yet showed they remain deeply responsive to domestic concerns once external threats fade.

France on Tuesday (April 29, 2025) accused Russian military intelligence of being behind a series of cyberattacks against the country over the last decade, including against an organisation involved in the 2024 Paris Olympics and Emmanuel Macron’s first presidential campaign in 2017.

Since 2021, a branch of Russian military intelligence (GRU) dedicated to such attacks has also targeted a dozen French entities including “defence, financial and economic sectors”, the Foreign Ministry said.

“France condemns in the strongest terms the use by Russia’s military intelligence service (GRU) of the APT28 attack group, at the origin of several cyberattacks on French interests,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

The GRU “has been carrying out cyberattacks against France for several years using a method known as APT28”, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in a message on X, officially attributing these cyberattacks to the GRU for the first time.

‘Massive hacking operation’

APT28, also known as Fancy Bear, has been linked to dozens of global cyberattacks, including the 2016 U.S. election, where it was accused of aiding Donald Trump by leaking Democratic Party emails and those of the campaign of Hillary Clinton.

The group targets personal email accounts to retrieve data and messages, or gain access to other machines on a system.

In 2017, hackers hit Macron’s first presidential run, leaking thousands of documents barely 24 hours before the vote.

“In the midst of the presidential election, APT28 participated in a massive hacking operation” aiming “to sow doubt and influence public opinion”, France’s foreign ministry said in a video shared by Barrot on X.

“Thousands of documents were stolen and disseminated, hoping to manipulate voters, but the manoeuvre failed to really impact the electoral process,” the video continues, referring to the 2017 leak.

Macron easily won the election in a second-round runoff against far-right veteran Marine Le Pen. French officials have also warned in the past over the risk of interference in elections set for 2027, when Macron cannot stand again because of term limits, and the far right is expected to be a major contender.

The video added that entities in France attacked since 2021 include those “working in the daily lives of French people and include public services, private enterprises as well as a sport organisation involved in the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games”.

Media is one of the hackers’ preferred targets, the foreign ministry added.

In 2015, ATP28 — posing as Islamic State militants — hacked the French-language channel TV5 Monde “to manipulate public opinion” and “create a panic in France”, it said.

France has been a frequent target of Islamist attacks over the last decade, notably in 2015 when the Bataclan concert hall and the national stadium were attacked.

‘Constant pressure’

France is not APT28’s only target, with several international intelligence services, including German authorities, warning in September 2024 of Fancy Bear cyberattacks against NATO countries.

The group is “targeting our partners,” the foreign ministry video said, adding that Ukraine has been one of the group’s “priorities” since Russia launched its invasion of the country in February 2022.

“APT28 is also being used to exert constant pressure on Ukrainian infrastructure in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the foreign ministry said.

And Poland, a staunch ally of Kyiv, warned in recent months that Moscow might seek to interfere with a presidential vote set for May 18 through cyberattacks and disinformation.

France and Poland will sign a “friendship treaty” on May 9, coinciding with Russian President Vladimir Putin presiding over a huge parade in Moscow on the same day as Russia marks victory in World War II.

“Alongside its partners, France is determined to use all the means at its disposal to anticipate Russia’s malicious behaviour in cyberspace, discourage it and respond to it where necessary,” the Foreign Ministry said.

In a dramatic turnaround few predicted at the start of the year, Mark Carney led Canada’s Liberal Party to its fourth consecutive term in power following the 2025 federal election. Although the Liberals fell short of an outright majority, they emerged as the largest party in a fractured Parliament, allowing Carney to continue as Prime Minister. It was a victory shaped by a blend of strategic leadership change, a carefully managed campaign focused on stability, and an extraordinary external catalyst: the aggressive interventions of US President Donald Trump.
The story of Canada’s 2025 election is not just about a party clinging to power. It is about how a fresh face, a strategic pivot, and the unpredictable force of external events combined to reverse what initially appeared to be a looming Liberal defeat.
Trudeau’s Exit: A Necessary Reset

Justin Trudeau’s political brand, once associated with youthful optimism and progressive momentum, had become a liability by early 2025. After nearly a decade as Prime Minister, Trudeau faced plummeting approval ratings, fueled by high food prices, a worsening housing crisis, and lingering ethics scandals. Internal dissent within the Liberal Party reached a breaking point, culminating in Trudeau’s resignation in January.
The party quickly rallied around Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, known for his serious demeanour and expertise in economic management. Carney was seen as a sharp contrast to Trudeau’s celebrity style — a technocrat capable of restoring trust and steering the party away from further decline. His appointment as Prime Minister before facing voters gave the Liberals a rare advantage: the authority of incumbency combined with a perception of renewal.
The leadership change had an immediate impact. Polls that had shown the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by 20 points began to narrow. Carney’s emphasis on stability, competence, and national stewardship resonated with voters exhausted by political drama and economic anxiety.
A Campaign Shaped by External Forces
While the Liberals’ internal reset positioned them for a competitive fight, the campaign itself was transformed by unexpected developments beyond Canada’s borders. Donald Trump, newly re-elected as President of the United States, imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods in the weeks leading up to the election. Worse still, he made provocative remarks suggesting Canada should become America’s “51st state.”
These interventions infuriated Canadians across the political spectrum. In an election initially expected to focus on cost-of-living concerns and domestic policy failures, the narrative abruptly shifted toward national sovereignty and identity. Trump’s actions galvanised a surge of patriotism, turning the election into a referendum on Canadian independence rather than purely on government performance.
Mark Carney capitalised effectively. He presented himself as the steady, serious leader who could stand firm against US pressure. His campaign speeches emphasised defending Canada’s sovereignty, pledging retaliatory tariffs if necessary, and framing the Liberal Party as the bulwark against foreign interference. Slogans such as “Never 51!” became rallying cries at Liberal events, capturing the national mood.
The Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, by contrast, struggled to adapt. Having positioned himself as a populist critic of Trudeau-era policies, Poilievre now found himself vulnerable to accusations that he was too ideologically aligned with Trump-style politics. His previous rhetoric about “broken Canada” and anti-“woke” crusades seemed discordant against the backdrop of a nationalist surge focused on external threats.
Election Results: A Liberal Minority, But a Moral Victory
On election night, the Liberals emerged with around 168 seats out of 343, while the Conservatives secured approximately 143. The Bloc Québécois, New Democratic Party (NDP), and Green Party captured the remainder, with both the Bloc and NDP suffering major losses.
Although the Liberals fell short of the 172 seats required for a majority, the outcome was celebrated as a significant victory given the starting point earlier in the year. The Liberals’ seat efficiency — aided by Canada’s first-past-the-post system — allowed them to convert a near-tied popular vote into a commanding parliamentary lead.
Voter turnout was notably high, with record-breaking advance voting numbers, indicating heightened public engagement. Analysts widely attributed the Liberal win to a combination of Trump’s interventions, strategic voting by left-leaning Canadians, and Carney’s successful rebranding of the party.
Regional Patterns: Strategic Voting Reshapes the Map
The regional breakdown of the election results revealed significant shifts:

British Columbia was particularly notable for the collapse of the NDP, whose traditional base crumbled as voters shifted toward the Liberals to counter the Conservatives. In Quebec, federalist sentiment surged in response to Trump’s perceived threats, severely damaging the Bloc’s prospects.
Why Conservatives Fell Short
The Conservatives entered the election well-positioned to win. Their focus on affordability and dissatisfaction with Liberal governance initially resonated. However, several factors contributed to their eventual defeat:
First, Trump’s interventions redefined the election’s central question. Instead of choosing between Liberal governance and Conservative economic management, voters were asked to choose between Canadian sovereignty and potential alignment with Trumpism.
Second, Pierre Poilievre struggled to reframe his campaign once nationalism took centre stage. His prior emphasis on culture wars and populist rhetoric left him open to accusations of being sympathetic to Trump’s worldview. His public call for Trump to “stay out of our election” highlighted the extent to which Trump had become a liability, but it came too late to change perceptions.
Third, strategic voting among progressive Canadians was decisive. Fear of a Conservative government led many NDP and Green supporters to shift their votes to Liberal candidates, particularly in battleground ridings.
Finally, the Liberals’ leadership change itself removed the strongest Conservative talking point: opposition to Justin Trudeau personally. Without Trudeau to target, Poilievre’s attacks often seemed unfocused, and Carney’s technocratic calmness proved difficult to demonise.
Collapse of Smaller Parties
The 2025 election was disastrous for Canada’s smaller political parties. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, saw its parliamentary presence shrink to near-irrelevance, with Singh narrowly retaining his seat but most of his colleagues losing. The party’s collapse was largely a casualty of strategic voting, as progressive voters chose the Liberals to block the Conservatives.
The Bloc Québécois also suffered, losing several key seats to the Liberals. Trump’s rhetoric stirred federalist sentiment even among soft nationalists, reducing the Bloc’s appeal.
The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada failed to make significant gains. Greens were squeezed by Liberal consolidation of environmentally-minded voters, while the PPC’s far-right messaging found little traction amid nationalist concerns about external threats.
Carney’s “Mr Serious” Persona: An Unexpected Strength
Mark Carney’s personal style — often described as “bland” or “boring” — turned out to be an asset in an election dominated by fears of instability. After years of political drama under Trudeau and the bombastic style of leaders like Trump, Canadian voters appeared to crave steady, sober leadership.
Carney’s background as a central banker and his technocratic, no-nonsense public image reassured voters looking for competence over charisma. His campaign messaging focused on “steady hands for uncertain times,” presenting him as a trustworthy steward of Canada’s future.
While his speeches may have lacked rhetorical fireworks, Carney projected calm and control, qualities that contrasted sharply with the volatility unfolding in the United States and elsewhere. In 2025, being “boring” proved to be exactly what many
A New Chapter for Canada
The 2025 election reshaped Canada’s political landscape. The Liberals, though bruised, demonstrated remarkable resilience under new leadership. The Conservatives, despite making gains in traditional strongholds, were unable to expand their coalition in an election defined by questions of identity and sovereignty.
Mark Carney now faces the complex task of governing with a minority mandate. He must address the affordability crisis, strengthen Canada’s economic resilience, and navigate an increasingly turbulent global environment — all while maintaining the nationalist unity that propelled him to victory.
For now, however, Carney’s first win as Prime Minister represents not just a personal triumph but a broader affirmation of Canadian political values: stability, sovereignty, and pragmatism in the face of external pressures.
In 2025, Canada chose to stand its ground — and chose, overwhelmingly, to do so with steady hands at the helm.