In a stunning turn of events that has shaken the global oil market, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces on Saturday, January 3, 2026, at 2:00 a.m., according to U.S. President Donald Trump. This dramatic development has brought Venezuela—a country sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves—back into the spotlight, and India is watching closely.
Venezuela’s story is one of tragic irony. Imagine having the world’s biggest treasure chest but not being able to open it. That’s Venezuela’s reality. The country holds about 17% of the world’s oil reserves—a staggering 303 billion barrels—more than even Saudi Arabia, the giant of OPEC, according to the London-based Energy Institute. Yet, despite this enormous wealth buried beneath its soil, Venezuela produces shockingly little oil. Poor management, lack of investment, and crushing international sanctions have crippled what should have been a thriving industry.
Most of Venezuela’s oil is heavy crude found in the Orinoco region of central Venezuela. Think of it like thick, sticky oil that’s harder to pump out compared to the lighter, free-flowing oil found in the Middle East. It costs more money to extract, though the technology needed isn’t particularly complex, according to the U.S. government’s energy department. Venezuela was once an oil powerhouse. As one of OPEC’s founding members alongside Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, it pumped out 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s—over 7% of the world’s total oil production. Fast forward to today, and that number has collapsed to just 1.1 million barrels per day, barely 1% of global output, as reported by Reuters.
The question everyone’s asking now is: what happens next? If this forced change in government leads to stability, Venezuela could eventually flood the global market with more oil. However, experts warn against expecting miracles overnight. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management told Reuters that oil output won’t recover quickly—it will take considerable time to fully improve.
History backs this up. Look at Libya and Iraq, where forced government changes led to years of oil supply chaos. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, pointed this out to Reuters as a serious warning.
Yet there’s hope. MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic told Reuters that if sanctions are lifted and foreign companies start investing again, Venezuela’s oil exports could increase significantly. President Trump himself told Fox News on Saturday that the United States would be “deeply involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector, though details remain unclear.
Venezuela’s oil history is a rollercoaster. In the 1970s, the country nationalized its oil industry and created PDVSA, the state oil company. In the 1990s, it opened doors to foreign investors. But when Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999, he made it mandatory that PDVSA must own the majority share in every oil project. The company then created joint ventures with big names like Chevron from the U.S., China National Petroleum Corporation, Italy’s ENI, France’s Total, and Russia’s Rosneft.
For India, Venezuela was once an important oil supplier. As The Indian Express reported, India-Venezuela trade stood at a healthy USD 6,397 million (₹57,573 crore) in 2019-20, with India importing USD 6,057 million (₹54,513 crore) worth of oil. But when U.S. sanctions hit Venezuela, India drastically reduced its oil imports. By 2021-22, trade had collapsed to just USD 424 million (₹3,816 crore), with imports of barely USD 89 million (₹801 crore). The numbers tell a story of steady decline and India’s careful navigation of international politics.
The India-Venezuela relationship has always been more about business than deep friendship. Relations peaked in 2005 when President Hugo Chavez visited India and held talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Nicolás Maduro himself visited India in August 2012 as Venezuela’s Foreign Minister and met with External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna. Over the years, there have been occasional high-level meetings—mostly on the sidelines of international summits—but energy cooperation remained the main thread connecting the two nations. According to the Indian Embassy, fewer than 100 Indians live in Venezuela—about 50 NRIs and 30 PIOs—showing limited people-to-people connections.
The global oil game has shifted dramatically for Venezuela. The United States was once its biggest customer, but sanctions pushed China to become the main buyer over the last decade. Venezuela owes China around $10 billion and has been repaying these loans with crude oil shipped in three massive tankers that were jointly owned by both countries. When Trump announced a blockade in December, stopping all ships from entering or leaving Venezuela, two of these giant tankers were already heading toward the country. They’re now stuck, waiting for orders, according to PDVSA documents and shipping records reviewed by Reuters. Venezuela’s oil exports have largely ground to a halt. Trump told Fox News that China would receive the oil but didn’t elaborate. Russia, too, has lent Venezuela billions—though the exact amount remains unknown.
After Saturday’s dramatic developments, India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued an advisory asking Indians in Venezuela to stay cautious and avoid non-essential travel. For India, which imports over 85% of its oil needs, every major development in oil-producing nations matters. While Venezuela may not be supplying much oil to India right now, any future stability could open new opportunities—or create new complications in an already complex global energy market.
The Venezuela crisis is far from over. The coming months will reveal whether this forced change brings stability and renewed oil production, or whether it becomes another cautionary tale of political upheaval destroying economic potential.
