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US to lose billions? Weakening travel demand could cost economy, warn analysts – Times of India

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US to lose billions? Weakening travel demand could cost economy, warn analysts – Times of India


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Declining travel demand, evidenced by disappointing earnings projections from major travel companies, could lead to significant economic losses for the US this year. Analysts point to the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies on consumer confidence, as reported by Reuters.
JP Morgan claimed in a recent note that rising anti-American sentiment may be contributing to a decline in international tourism, which is a key service export. Both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan estimate that reduced foreign travel expenditure could lower US GDP by 0.1 per cent this year, with potential impacts reaching 0.2 to 0.3 per cent.
LSEG analytics data shows that US GDP reached $23.53 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, suggesting that the losses could range from $23 billion to $71 billion, based on Reuters’ calculations.
Delta Air Lines reported last month that travel demand has “largely stalled” and abandoned its annual projections. Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Alaska Air, and Frontier all withdrew their guidance, while United Airlines issued two separate forecasts, as trade tensions create unprecedented uncertainty, similar to the post-Covid-19 conditions.
Airbnb projected second-quarter revenue below market expectations, and Hilton noted that travelers were adopting a “wait-and-see” approach. Goldman Sachs, in a March report, attributed reduced European travel bookings to tariff announcements and a more aggressive stance toward historical US allies, contributing to global unease about the US. The decline in international tourism has been particularly impactful.
Also read: India may gain as US-China trade tensions push automakers to diversify, claims report
Trump’s inconsistent tariff policies have led global consumers to avoid US products and brands. In 2024, foreign traveler spending accounted for 0.7 per cent, or $215 billion, of US GDP, according to J.P. Morgan estimates. A 10 per cent reduction in spending directly impacts US GDP by 7 basis points, the firm added.
Americans, meanwhile, are showing caution in discretionary spending due to budget constraints and concerns about a potential recession, exacerbated by ongoing trade policy uncertainties.
In 2023, the US travel and tourism sector represented about 3 per cent of GDP and supported more than six million jobs, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. After a strong performance in 2023 and 2024, Bank of America-aggregated card data shows a marked reduction in spending on lodging, tourism, and airlines in the week ending March 22.
Recent data revealed the US economy’s first contraction in three years during the first quarter, and April saw continued weak consumer sentiment.
Also read: Warren Buffett warns US against weaponizing trade at 2025 Berkshire AGM





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Sovereign Gold Bond 2017-18 series VI yields over 220% return in 7.5 years; RBI fixes premature redemption price at Rs 9,453 per gram on May 6 – Times of India

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Sovereign Gold Bond 2017-18 series VI yields over 220% return in 7.5 years; RBI fixes premature redemption price at Rs 9,453 per gram on May 6 – Times of India


Investors holding the Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) 2017-18 Series VI, issued on November 6, 2017, will be eligible for premature redemption on May 6, 2025, at a price of Rs 9,453 per gram, as notified by the Reserve Bank of India.
This marks a gain of around 221% on the original issue price of Rs 2,945 per gram (or Rs 2,895 for investors), over a holding period of seven and a half years.
In an official statement on Monday, the RBI said, “The redemption price for premature redemption due on May 06, 2025 shall be Rs 9,453/- (Rupees Nine Thousand Four Hundred and Fifty-Three only) per unit of SGB based on the simple average of closing gold price for the three business days i.e., April 30, May 02 and May 05, 2025.”
Earlier, according to the RBI the Sovereign Gold Bond 2017-18 Series VI was priced at Rs 2,945 per gram, based on the average closing price of gold of 999 purity from October 25 to 27, 2017. Investors who applied online and paid digitally had received a Rs 50 discount, bringing the effective issue price to Rs 2,895 per gram.
The Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme was launched in 2015 by the Government of India, in consultation with the RBI, as a financial alternative to physical gold investment. Bonds are issued in denominations of one gram of gold or multiples thereof, and are tradable and eligible for conversion to dematerialised form. Each tranche is open for limited subscription windows and comes with a fixed interest rate of 2.50% per annum, paid semi-annually. Capital gains on redemption are tax-free for individual investors, and the bonds can also be used as collateral for loans.
Redemption of SGBs is allowed after the fifth year from the date of issue, but only on the next interest payment date. The final maturity is after eight years. The redemption price is linked to the market value of gold and is based on the simple average of closing prices of gold of 999 purity, according to the RBI.





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Warren Buffett to exit as CEO: Stakeholders weigh on Berkshire Hathaway’s future under Greg Abel’s leadership – Times of India

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Warren Buffett to exit as CEO: Stakeholders weigh on Berkshire Hathaway’s future under Greg Abel’s leadership – Times of India


Warren Buffett to pass baton to Greg Abel

Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway are contemplating the future of the conglomerate following Warren Buffett‘s unexpected announcement of stepping down as chief executive by year end. While most acknowledging that the company will remain stable under Vice Chairman Greg Abel’s leadership who Buffett endorsed to be his successor, some stakeholders express concern about the absence of Buffett’s unique insight and charisma.
The $1.16 trillion organisation, encompassing 189 operating businesses, $264 billion in stocks and $348 billion in cash, faces uncertainty regarding its trajectory post-Buffett era. The announcement came after the annual meeting’s question-answer session, with the board scheduled to discuss the transition.
“There has been a premium on Berkshire because of Buffett,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert.NXT, as quoted by news agency Reuters. “Will people look at it in the same way?”
Richard Casterline, a computer programmer from Denver, found the news startling and expressed interest in the market’s reaction. He said, “I don’t think (Abel) elicits the same excitement. It’s not any fault of his own, it’s just thinking of who could be as legendary as those two are. It’s just tough shoes to fill.”
Despite concerns, Abel receives substantial support. Daniel Hanson senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman expressed complete confidence in Abel’s capabilities, “This is Buffett’s baby, and he thoughtfully and deliberately planned for an orderly succession that does not disrupt the value of his life’s work,” he said, adding, “I have full confidence in Greg’s leadership.”
Richard Lancaster compared the transition to Apple’s leadership change from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook and adding, “You have two different personalities, two different approaches.”
“Greg has all the qualities Warren likes in a manager: very sharp individual, and well-versed in what’s in the business climate today and the changes that will come through disruptive technologies,” he also said.
Under Buffett’s stewardship, Berkshire’s shareholder returns have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 (.SPX). The company’s investment decisions often influenced market movements, even when Buffett wasn’t directly involved.
Abel’s approach suggests possible adjustments. He indicated increased involvement in subsidiary oversight whilst maintaining their autonomy. Berkshire’s diverse portfolio includes Geico insurance, BNSF railway, utilities, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and See’s Candies, as reported by Reuters.
The new leadership might adopt different approaches to business retention and divestment. Previously, Berkshire sold Applied Underwriters in 2019 and its newspaper holdings in 2020 due to market changes.





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EU power grid needs trillion-dollar upgrade to avert Spain-style blackouts

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India conveys concerns in ‘strongest terms’ to Canada after pro-Khalistan rally in Toronto


Europe’s ageing power grid and lack of energy storage capacity will require trillions of dollars in investments to cope with rising green energy output, increasing electricity demand and to avoid blackouts.

A week ago, Spain and Portugal lost power in their worst blackout. Authorities are investigating the cause, but whatever the findings, analysts and industry representatives say infrastructure investment is essential.

“The blackout was a wake-up call. It showed that the need to modernise and reinforce Europe’s electricity grid is urgent and unavoidable,” Kristina Ruby, secretary general at Eurelectric, Europe’s electricity industry association, said.

The European Union’s power grid mostly dates back to the last century and half the lines are over 40 years old. Rising low-carbon energy production and booming demand from data centres and electric vehicles require an overhaul of the grids that also need digital protection to withstand cyber attacks.

While global investment in renewables has nearly doubled since 2010, investment in grids has barely changed at around $300 billion a year. The amount needs to double by 2030 to over $600 billion a year to cover the necessary overhauls, according to the International Energy Agency.

Spain has asked its own investigators and European Union regulators to investigate last Monday’s outage.

While the underlying issues have yet to become clear, grid operator Red Electrica said two separate incidents had triggered the massive power loss.

It follows an acceleration in renewable energy use, especially in Spain, after Russia’s invasion invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting disruption of oil and gas supplies focused EU efforts on reducing dependence on fossil fuel.

The share of renewables rose to 47% in the EU’s power mix last year from 34% in 2019, while fossil fuels dropped to 29% from 39%, data from think tank Ember showed.

Spain plans to phase out coal and nuclear power. Renewable generation hit a record high at 56% of Spain’s power mix in 2024.

Wind and solar projects are relatively quick to build compared with grids, which can take more than a decade.

Part of the problem is the huge sums and complexity of improving a grid over a large distance.

The European Commission has estimated Europe needs to invest $2.0-2.3 trillion in grids by 2050.

Last year, European firms invested 80 billion euros ($90.5 billion) in grids, up from 50-70 billion in previous years, analysts at Bruegel said while adding investments may need to rise to 100 billion.

Inter-state Connections

Spain and Portugal’s power systems are among those in Europe that lack connections to other grids that can provide back up.

Spain needs more links to France and Morocco, said José Luis Domínguez-García from Spain’s energy research centre IREC in Catalunya.

Spain has only 5% of connections outside the Iberian Peninsula, he added.

As some other countries also lag, the European Commission has a target to increase interconnection to 15% by 2030, from a previous goal of 10%, meaning each EU member country should be able to import at least 15% of its power production capacity from neighbouring countries.

Spain will reinforce connections with France, including a new link via the Bay of Biscay that will double the interconnection capacity between the two countries, Spain’s grid Red Electrica said on Tuesday.

Need for backup

As solar and wind generation grows, the challenges go beyond upgrading grids to the need for back-up generation.

Solar and wind farms generate direct current power, while traditional gas or nuclear plants generate alternating current.

DC power is converted to AC in inverters to standard 50 Hertz frequency for European grids and use in homes and businesses. If power generation drops, the grid requires back-up AC power to prevent the frequency from dropping.

In the event frequency drops, automatic safety mechanisms disconnect some generation to prevent overheating, damage to transformers or transmission lines. If too many plants drop off at the same time, the system can experience a blackout.

Before last week’s outage, Spain had suffered power glitches and industry officials had repeatedly warned of grid instability.

Spain’s energy officials have also said the country’s plans to shut down all seven of its nuclear reactors by 2035 could put power supply at risk.

Portugal has only two back-up plants – a gas and a hydro plant – able to quickly respond if the grid needs more power, Portugal’s Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said on Tuesday, adding the country wants more.

In Britain, a blackout in 2019 cut power to a million customers, when a lightning strike and a second, unrelated incident lowered the frequency of the grid.

Since then, the country has invested to expand battery storage and had around 5 gigawatts of capacity installed at the end of last year, according to industry association RenewableUK. It can help balance the grid in the same way as power plants.

Europe has 10.8 gigawatts of battery storage and it will grow to 50 GW by 2030 – much less than the required 200 GW, according to the European Association for Storage of Energy.

In Ireland, Siemens Energy has built the world’s largest flywheel, which can also operate as power storage and help to stabilise the grid.



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