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US economy contracts 0.3% in Q1 2025; Donald Trump blames it on Biden ‘Overhang’ – Times of India

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US economy contracts 0.3% in Q1 2025; Donald Trump blames it on Biden ‘Overhang’ – Times of India


US GDP contracts: The economic news triggered a negative response in US stock markets

US GDP contracts: The American economy saw an unexpected contraction during the first quarter of 2025, primarily attributed to increased imports as businesses and individuals built up inventories before US President Donald Trump‘s comprehensive tariffs took effect.
According to figures released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday, the GDP of America’s economy declined at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter, following a 2.4 percent growth in the last quarter of 2024. This performance fell considerably short of market expectations, which had predicted a 0.4 percent growth, as reported by Briefing.com.
“The downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending,” the Commerce Department said in a statement.
The economic news triggered a negative response in US stock markets, with significant early declines observed across all three main Wall Street indices.
Blame it on Biden? Trump thinks so!
In a Truth Social platform post, the US president dismissed claims about the economic downturn, shifting responsibility to his predecessor Joe Biden.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” the US president wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. “Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.'”
“This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS,” he said. “When the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!”
Subsequently, in a CNBC interview, Trump’s economic adviser Peter Navarro addressed the GDP decline, attributing it to pre-tariff import activities.
“When you have this import surge that we’ve had to try to get in ahead of the tariffs, that’s dragging down our GDP growth by something like five percent,” he said. “I mean, it’s just like extraordinary.
“But that’s not going to be the case next quarter,” he added.
Since returning to office on January 20, the US president has implemented various tariff measures. In March, he announced comprehensive tariffs targeting major trading partners, scheduled to begin in early April, aiming to restructure US trade relationships. The GDP figures were released on his 101st day in office.
Tariff sword hangs
The implementation of tariffs triggered a market selloff, with volatility reaching unprecedented levels since the Covid-19 pandemic, causing investor uncertainty.
“Usually, government policy doesn’t change that much, particularly not in the first 100 days of a presidency,” George Washington University economics professor Tara Sinclair told AFP before the data was published. “But this one’s different.”
“I think it’s pretty clear that there were dramatic policy changes that are directly weakening the economy,” she said.
“100 days into his presidency, Donald Trump’s red-light, green-light tariffs are shrinking our economy, with businesses stockpiling imports in anticipation of tariff doomsday,” Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said in a statement after the GDP data was published.
The impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its mission to maintain price stability and optimal employment levels, according to MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni in a note to clients shared with AFP.
“We expect that the Fed will hold rates steady at its meeting next week and will indicate that it will continue to hold at this level until it becomes clear whether a recession or inflation is the bigger risk,” he said.





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India-UK FTA to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 and benefit exporters, say industry bodies – Times of India

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India-UK FTA to boost bilateral trade to 0 billion by 2030 and benefit exporters, say industry bodies – Times of India


Industry organisations on Tuesday welcomed the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), asserting it will significantly support Indian exporters aiming to expand their presence in the UK market, particularly in the face of current global economic uncertainties. The agreement aspires to elevate bilateral trade to USD 100 billion by 2030. Experts cited by news agency PTI emphasised that the FTA’s success will hinge on effective implementation and the capacity of Indian businesses to capitalise on enhanced market access while navigating competition from UK imports. Industry leaders underscored that the FTA would provide a strong push to sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), healthcare, and innovation-led enterprises. Ficci President Harsha Vardhan Agarwal said, “Guided by Prime Minister Modi’s bold and strategic leadership, this milestone reflects India’s growing stature as a global economic force and a trusted partner in progress.” The agreement, Ficci noted, comes at a critical time when global trade dynamics remain uncertain, offering Indian exporters a valuable opportunity to strengthen their foothold in the UK.Also read: Piyush Goyal lauds India-UK Free Trade Agreement Echoing similar sentiments, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Sanjiv Puri said, “This significant agreement reflects our shared commitment to deepening economic ties, bolstering technology collaboration, diversifying global supply chains, and fostering a more business-friendly environment.” “Guided by the 2030 roadmap, the timely agreement will help advance a comprehensive strategic partnership between India and the UK, steering bilateral trade towards the ambitious target of USD 100 billion by 2030,” he added. Sudarshan Venu, managing director of TVS Motor Company, highlighted the deal’s potential to enable Indian firms like TVS Motor to grow globally saying, “We really appreciate the effort taken by the government to make this historic India-UK Free Trade Agreement. Our British brand Norton will launch later this year and this agreement will help us scale faster and leverage common supply chains. We are excited as we further progress towards Viksit Bharat.” Rishi Shah, partner and economic advisory services leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, said, “The UK-India FTA… promises significant growth in bilateral trade… The deal’s success will ultimately depend on implementation and whether Indian businesses can leverage new market access while navigating competitive pressures from UK imports.” Mayank Jain, Partner at Khaitan & Co, added, The substantial duty reductions across various tariff lines are expected to enhance market access and foster long-term economic benefits for both nations. Moving forward, the emphasis should be on implementing best practices and adopting a phased approach to further strengthen and deepen trade relations.”Also read: India, UK forge Free Trade Agreement, PM Modi terms it ‘historic milestone’The trade deal removes customs duties on 99 per cent of Indian goods entering British markets, whilst providing opportunities for Indian professionals to work in Britain, maintaining the UK’s current points-based immigration system. The United Kingdom and India, ranking as the world’s sixth and fifth-largest economies, concluded their negotiations after three years of periodic talks.The bilateral trade between India and the UK increased to $21.34 billion in 2023-24, up from $20.36 billion in 2022-23. During April-January 2024-25, the trade exchange amounted to $21.33 billion, exceeding the previous period’s figure of $20.26 billion. India continues to maintain a positive trade balance in this bilateral relationship.According to government representatives, this trade arrangement is advantageous for both nations. The agreement is expected to enable Indian consumers to access superior products at competitive prices, which would boost domestic consumption and economic development. Additionally, it provides British enterprises with opportunities in India’s large and growing marketplace, aligning with the UK government’s economic growth strategies, according to officials.Read more: What does the UK-India FTA mean for India? Top benefits – from cheaper cars, whisky to cheer for Indian professionals





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India, U.K. conclude trade deal, double contribution convention

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India, U.K. conclude trade deal, double contribution convention


Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a bilateral meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, in Rio de Janeiro. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

India and the U.K. on Tuesday (May 6, 2025) sealed an ambitious free trade deal along with a double contribution convention with Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying that the landmark pacts will catalyse trade, investment, growth and job creation in both the economies.

Mr. Modi made the announcement on the agreements after a phone conversation with his British counterpart Keir Starmer.

“In a historic milestone, India and the U.K. have successfully concluded an ambitious and mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement, along with a Double Contribution Convention,” Mr. Modi said in a social media post.

EXPLAINED | India’s proposed free trade agreement with the U.K.

“These landmark agreements will further deepen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and catalyse trade, investment, growth, job creation, and innovation in both our economies,” he said.

Mr. Modi said he was looking forward to welcoming Mr. Starmer in India soon.

The leaders described it as a historic milestone in the bilateral Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that would foster trade, investment, innovation and job creation in both the economies. Both agreed that the landmark agreements between the two big and open market economies of the world will open new opportunities for businesses, strengthen economic linkages, and deepen people-to-people ties.

Also Read | India committed to Free Trade Agreement with the U.K., says Modi

The Prime Minister’s Office said the two leaders agreed that expanding economic and commercial ties between India and the U.K. remain a “cornerstone” of the increasingly robust and multifaceted partnership.

“The conclusion of a balanced, equitable and ambitious FTA, covering trade in goods and services, is expected to significantly enhance bilateral trade, generate new avenues for employment, raise living standards, and improve the overall well-being of citizens in both countries,” it said.

What’s the status of India’s Free Trade Agreements?

“It will also unlock new potential for the two nations to jointly develop products and services for global markets,” it added.

“This agreement cements the strong foundations of the India-U.K. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and paves the way for a new era of collaboration and prosperity,” the PMO said in a statement.



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IMF’s April Outlook projects India to become fourth largest in 2025 

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IMF’s April Outlook projects India to become fourth largest in 2025 


A view of the International Monetary Fund logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 24, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s April Outlook held that India would surpass Japan to become the fourth largest economy. The global financial institution tasked to promote economic stability estimates India’s gross domestic product, at current prices, is expected to scale about $4,187.02 billion in 2025. This would be marginally higher than its nearest peer Japan estimated to reach $4,186.43 billion. United States (with a GDP of $30,507.22 billion), China ($19,231.71) and Germany ($4,744.8 billion) continue being the three largest economies globally in the same order.

The outlook further projected that India would be able to achieve their ambition of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2027. This would be after two successive years of GDP growth at about 9.9% and 10.2% respectively. IMF further projects that India’s GDP would exceed $6.8 trillion by 2030.

A scrutiny of IMF data also indicated that India’s GDP growth rate in 2026 and 2027 would be, notwithstanding the individual size of the larger economies, higher than that of the U.S., China, Japan and United Kingdom, among others.

Indian economy projected to grow 6.2% in 2025

IMF further underlined that the Indian economy is projected to grow 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. The global financial institution promoting financial stability underlined that the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2% in 2025 supported by “private consumption, particularly in rural areas”. However, it held that the rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than their projections published in January indicative of “higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty”.

It is also noteworthy that India’s projected rate of economic growth is also higher than that of China (4%), U.S. (1.8%), Japan (0.6%) and UK (1.1%).



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