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US-China tariff war: Why Donald Trump thinks Xi Jinping will blink first – Times of India

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US-China tariff war: Why Donald Trump thinks Xi Jinping will blink first – Times of India


US and China have been steadily increasing tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s imports.

US President Donald Trumpon Wednesday ratcheted up his tariff offensive up to 245% on China. He also declared it’s up to China to return to the negotiating table after Beijing backed out of a high-stakes Boeing aircraft deal.“The ball is in China’s court,” Trump said in a statement delivered by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. “China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them.”
In reaction, China said it was “not afraid” of engaging in a trade war with the United States, while repeating its call for dialogue. “If the US really wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop exerting extreme pressure, stop threatening and blackmailing, and talk to China on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.
Why it matters
Despite China’s tough talk, it faces deeper economic vulnerabilities than the US, and a prolonged trade war could inflict lasting damage on its export-reliant economy. While both nations are absorbing shocks, the pain may be far more acute for Beijing — not least because of how much it still depends on American consumers.
“They’ll run out of bullets first,” Trump reportedly told aides during his first administration.
That sentiment is now being stress-tested as China grapples with a triple blow: Plunging exports, sluggish consumer demand, and a weak job market.
Why China is at a disadvantage
Despite its rhetoric, Beijing is boxed in—economically, politically, and strategically. Here’s why:
1. Exports still power China’s economy
Despite its attempts to diversify exports, China still remains deeply reliant on US markets. Exports account for nearly a third of its GDP, and up to 20% of that goes to the US when indirect trade routes are factored in. Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 20 million Chinese jobs depend on these exports. Beijing has talked for years about pivoting toward domestic consumption, but the reality is that its economy is still built to sell to the world—especially to America.A sudden collapse in US-bound trade will hit employment, growth, and local government revenue hard.

China not reliant on US trade
US-China market

2. China is fighting from a weaker economic position
China’s economy is already under stress—from deflation, a property market crisis, and weak private sector investment. Tariffs only deepen those vulnerabilities. While Q1 growth was 5.4%, much of that came from front-loading shipments to beat the tariff clock. Forecasts are already falling: Nomura cut its 2025 GDP estimate to 4%, UBS to 3.4%. China can’t afford another economic shock, especially one it didn’t initiate.Yet that’s exactly what this trade war is becoming. As per estimates, China’s GDP growth may get a hit of about 2% if the trade war continues.

Trade war may hit China GDP

3. The domestic market can’t absorb the shock
Officials tout China’s 1.4 billion consumers as a buffer against trade shocks. But household confidence is fragile. Property prices are falling, youth unemployment is high, and consumer sentiment has yet to rebound post-Covid. People are saving, not spending. Many middle-class households already saw their wealth eroded through the real estate slump, and stimulus has only provided short-term relief. Domestic demand is not yet strong or stable enough to replace the loss of US market access.
4. The Communist Party’s legitimacy is at stake
Unlike Washington, where economic pain can be chalked up to politics, China’s ruling party has no opposition to blame. The social contract in China hinges on stability and rising living standards. A prolonged trade war that drives unemployment up and incomes down could create unrest—and that’s politically dangerous for the leadership. Beijing may talk tough, but it knows that economic discontent can turn volatile fast, especially in urban centers where jobs are drying up.
5. Beijing lacks the agility of Trump’s trade policy
Ironically, Trump’s trade war is easier to escalate than Beijing’s. The US president can impose tariffs almost unilaterally- even with a post on X. In contrast, China’s policymaking is bureaucratic and consensus-driven, even under Xi Jinping. It takes time to analyze, agree on, and implement countermeasures. That makes China slower to react and easier to corner. In trade diplomacy, speed and unpredictability are assets—and Trump has both.
Between the lines: China’s retaliatory tools aren’t just limited – they’re risky

  • Rare earths leverage? Most US buyers get them in component form, and export bans would only accelerate alternative supply chains in places like Australia and Canada.
  • Devaluing the yuan? It could backfire by triggering capital flight and domestic inflation — already a risk in China’s consumer-sensitive economy.
  • Selling US Treasuries? That would raise US interest rates but also strengthen the yuan, making Chinese exports less competitive – the opposite of what Beijing wants.
  • Corporate pressure campaigns? Beijing has begun cracking down on some US firms through antitrust probes and film bans. But too much pressure could scare off foreign investors, worsening China’s post-pandemic investment drought.

What they’re saying
From the White House, the message is clear: Trump sees no need to compromise. Press secretary Leavitt repeated the president’s view that China “reneged” on a Boeing deal and failed to honor commitments under a previous trade agreement.
“There’s no difference between China and any other country except they are much larger,” Leavitt said.
Beijing disagrees — but behind its confident posture lies real concern. Chinese officials admit the new tariffs could “put certain pressures on our country’s foreign trade and economy,” said Sheng Laiyun of the National Bureau of Statistics.
That pressure is already visible on factory floors.
At the Canton Fair, a sprawling trade exhibition in Guangzhou, Chinese vendors shared frustration and fear. “This is so hard for us,” said Lionel Xu, whose mosquito repellent kits once filled US shelves. Now, they sit in a warehouse.
“We are worried. What if Trump doesn’t change his mind? That will be a dangerous thing for our factory,” Xu told BBC.
Zoom in
China’s messaging – both at home and abroad – is shifting between bravado and damage control.
State media has leaned into national pride, urging people to “eat bitterness” and endure hardship. But that’s easier said than done in 2025, when more than half the Chinese population is now overweight, and urban living expectations have surged.
The average Chinese consumer – especially the emerging middle class – isn’t eager to go backward. Add to that an already battered property sector and a soft job market, and the public appetite for pain may be limited.
Even official optimism is hedged. China’s customs authority recently insisted that “the sky won’t fall,” but also highlighted the need to boost domestic consumption to offset losses from declining US trade.
The looming question: which side may blink first
For now, both Trump and Xi Jinping are locked in a high-stakes faceoff. Trump’s rhetoric suggests he’s betting on economic attrition – expecting US voters to tolerate short-term inflation more easily than China can withstand a hit to its growth model.
Still, the risk of political backlash at home is real. Soaring prices on Chinese-made goods – from umbrellas to electronics – could pinch American consumers. Democrats are already labeling Trump’s tariff strategy a “Trump sales tax” on working families.
But China is more poorly positioned for a drawn-out trade war. Its economic vulnerabilities — from weak household demand to export dependence — are more severe than those in the US. Trump, unpredictable as ever, may yet reverse course. But unless he does, Beijing’s best option may not be escalation — it may be patience.
(With inputs from agencies)





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Electric two-wheeler maker Ather Energy sets IPO price band at ₹304-321/share

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Electric two-wheeler maker Ather Energy sets IPO price band at ₹304-321/share


Representative image
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Electric two-wheeler maker Ather Energy Ltd on Wednesday (April 23, 2025) said it has fixed a price band of ₹304 to ₹321 a piece for its ₹2,981 crore Initial Public Offering (IPO).

The issue will be open for public subscription from April 28 to April 30.

The bidding for anchor investors will open for a day on April 25, the company announced. This will be the first mainboard public issue of the current financial year (2025-26).

The IPO will be a combination of fresh issue of equity shares worth ₹2,626 crore, and an Offer-For-Sale (OFS) of 1.1 crore equity shares by promoters and other shareholders.

Ather intends to raise funds for the establishment of an electric two-wheeler factory in Maharashtra and for debt reduction. At the upper end of the price band, the IPO size is pegged at ₹2,981 crore, placing the company’s overall valuation at ₹11,956 crore.

This will be the second electric two-wheeler company looking to go public after Ola Electric Mobility floated its ₹6,145 crore IPO in August last year.

Ola Electric’s IPO had a fresh issue of up to ₹5,500 crore and an OFS of up to 8.5 crore equity shares.

Apart from its IPO plans, Ather Energy has also been expanding its research and development capabilities. Recently, the company announced the expansion of its R&D and testing capabilities at its product testing & validation centre.

The electric two-wheeler company has set aside 75% of the issue for qualified institutional buyers, 15% for non-institutional investors and the remaining 10% for retail investors.

Axis Capital, JM Financial, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India), and HSBC Securities & Capital Markets are the IPO’s book-running lead managers. The equity shares of the company are expected to list on May 6 on the stock exchanges.



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World Bank lowers India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.3%

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World Bank lowers India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.3%


World Bank said that amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy, South Asia’s growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded in most countries in the region. File
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

The World Bank on Wednesday (April 23, 2025) lowered India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal by 4 percentage points to 6.3% amid global economic weakness and policy uncertainty.

Editorial | Battle for growth: On India’s economic trajectory

In its previous estimate, the World Bank had projected India’s growth at 6.7% for the fiscal year 2025-26.

In India, growth in FY24/25 disappointed because of slower growth in private investment and public capital expenditures that did not meet government targets, the World Bank said in its twice-yearly regional outlook.

“In India, growth is expected to slow from 6.5% in FY24/25 to 6.3% as in FY25/26 as the benefits to private investment from monetary easing and regulatory streamlining are expected to be offset by global economic weakness and policy uncertainty,” said its South Asia Development Update, Taxing Times.

On Tuesday (April 22), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also lowered India’s GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.2% from its January estimates of 6.5%.

The World Bank report said the benefits to private investment from monetary easing and regulatory streamlining are expected to be offset by global economic weakness and policy uncertainty.

“Private consumption is expected to benefit from tax cuts, and the improving implementation of public investment plans should boost government investment, but export demand will be constrained by shifts in trade policy and slowing global growth,” it said.

Also read: India’s growth story over next two decades hinges on bold reforms, says FM Nirmala Sitharaman

It further said that amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy, South Asia’s growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded in most countries in the region.

Stepping up domestic revenue mobilisation could help the region strengthen fragile fiscal positions and increase resilience against future shocks, it said.

The Washington-headquartered multilateral agency has projected regional growth to slow to 5.8% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points below October projections before ticking up to 6.1% in 2026.

This outlook is subject to heightened risks, including from a highly uncertain global landscape, combined with domestic vulnerabilities, including constrained fiscal space.

“Although tax rates in South Asia are often above the average in developing economies, most tax revenues are lower. On average during 2019-23, government revenues in South Asia totalled 18% of GDP, below the 24% of GDP average for other developing economies,” it said.

Revenue shortfalls are particularly pronounced for consumption taxes but are also sizable for corporate and personal income taxes, the report said.

In Bangladesh, the report said the growth is expected to slow in FY24/25 to 3.3% amid political uncertainty and persistent financial challenges, and the growth rebound in FY25/26 has been downgraded to 4.9%.

For Pakistan, the World Bank said its economy continues to recover from a combination of natural disasters, external pressures, and inflation, and is expected to grow by 2.7% in FY24/25 and 3.1% in FY25/26.

In Sri Lanka, the government has made further progress with debt restructuring, and a projected rebound in investment and external demand is expected to lift growth in 2025 to 3.5% before it returns to 3.1% in 2026.



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Donald Trump’s tariffs: Why it could be a key manufacturing moment for India – Times of India

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Donald Trump’s tariffs: Why it could be a key manufacturing moment for India – Times of India


While the coming months will shape the future of global trade dynamics, the temporary suspension of US reciprocal tariffs provides India a unique window. (AI image)

By Kunal Chaudhary
The U.S. has announced a 90-day temporary pause on the imposition of the higher reciprocal tariffs on its trading partners. In a notable policy shift, the announcement came just hours after higher reciprocal tariffs had taken effect.While the temporary pause signals a potential softening of the tariff approach amid ongoing negotiations, the universal 10% base tariff on all imports will remain in place during this period. At the same time, the U.S increased tariffs on goods from China to 125%, citing China’s “lack of respect” after the country retaliated by announcing an 84% on U.S. imports.
The U.S. reciprocal tariffs on China are set to cause major disruptions to global supply chains, forcing American companies to explore alternative suppliers. This creates a significant opportunity for India to step up as a key trading partner, especially as trade conflicts with China continue. As global businesses look to further diversify their supply chains away from China, India has the chance to strategically position itself as a viable alternative, capitalizing on this shift to boost exports, attract investments, and enhance its manufacturing capabilities.
Electronics is one of the key sectors for India to gain with India’s exports valued at nearly USD 14 Bn. Electronics play a critical role in global trade, with countries like China dominating the exports landscape (i.e., with a market share of >30%). Though India’s export market share is in low single digits and steadily growing, the US’s 125% tariff on Chinese electronics imports, including smartphones, laptops, and other electronic devices, makes Indian manufactured products more competitive in the American market.Global brands such as Apple, which already use India as a key export hub, would likely increase production in the country to avoid higher costs associated with Chinese imports. This could lead to a surge in Indian exports of finished electronic devices and even components like batteries, circuit boards, and displays.
The additional demand for non-Chinese suppliers, also presents a unique opportunity for Indian Electronics manufacturers to expand and scale up operations and capture a larger share of the global market. India’s strategic initiatives such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes for smartphones, IT hardware, telecom products, and the newly introduced PLI for electronics component manufacturing, can collectively enhance India’s competitiveness by lowering cost barriers for exports.
As a strategic move, the Trump administration continued the exclusion of semiconductors from reciprocal tariffs, acknowledging their irreplaceable role. Semiconductors being crucial for national security and technological advancement, disrupting their supply could have led to significant implications.
The U.S. is actively promoting domestic semiconductor manufacturing through the U.S. CHIPS Act, which allocates $52 Bn for local semiconductor production. With significant investments already being made in new facilities and technologies by large chip makers of world like Intel & TSMC, exempting reciprocal tariffs supports this domestic growth strategy. Further, the current global semiconductor supply chain is deeply entrenched and complex, with maximum production already taking place in Taiwan & South Korea, disrupting this network would be challenging and relocating the existing capacity would take decades and investment of very large scale.
It is expected that the current pause offers a window for diplomatic engagement for initiating negotiations for trade agreements with the U.S. The pause in reciprocal tariffs aligns with India’s broader efforts to enhance US-India trade relations as both nations actively work towards a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) aimed at doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. To maintain a strong position in global trade and further strengthen its role as an alternative global manufacturing hub, India can look to deepen economic cooperation with the US, forging strategic partnerships and collaborations with U.S.that promote mutual benefits, minimize reciprocal tariff and drive sustained long-term export growth.
While the coming months will shape the future of global trade dynamics, the temporary suspension of US reciprocal tariffs provides India a unique window to enhance its bilateral relations. By addressing existing challenges, improving market access to the US, and leveraging strategic initiatives like “Make in India,” India can position itself as a reliable global supplier and accelerate its economic growth trajectory.
(Kunal Chaudhary is Tax Partner, EY India. Vaibhav Anand, Director-Tax, EY India, also contributed to the article.)





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