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UnitedHealth shares plunge 19% after slashing profit forecast on soaring medicare costs – Times of India

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UnitedHealth shares plunge 19% after slashing profit forecast on soaring medicare costs – Times of India


UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock tumbled 19% Thursday after the company drastically cut its 2025 earnings forecast, citing significantly higher-than-expected medical costs tied to a surge in demand for outpatient and physician services within its Medicare Advantage plans.
The insurer now expects adjusted earnings per share to fall between $26 and $26.50, well below its earlier guidance of $29.50 to $30 and analysts’ expectations of $29.73, according to data from LSEG.
The shock guidance sent ripples through the healthcare sector, dragging down shares of key rivals. Elevance, CVS Health, Cigna, Centene, and Humana fell between 3% and 13% in premarket trading, with the overall sector poised to shed more than $130 billion in market cap, CNBC reported.
“This was a stock that was a safe haven for so many among tariffs and policy uncertainty,” said Kevin Gade, COO of Bahl & Gaynor, which holds UnitedHealth shares. “Nobody was expecting this level of a miss or cut to guidance.”
UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty acknowledged the shortfall, stating, “We are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead.”
While insurers stumbled, hospital operators HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare jumped between 3% and 7%, buoyed by expectations of sustained high demand for healthcare services.
The health insurance industry has faced increasing pressure since mid-2023, dealing with lower government payments, rising care utilization, and mounting public scrutiny — intensified by the late-2024 murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson, which sparked widespread criticism of insurer practices online.





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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year

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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year


Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, while coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW.
| Photo Credit: N. Rajesh

Tamil Nadu’s total installed power capacity was 42,772.20 MW as on March 31 this year, increasing from the previous year’s 39,805.97 MW, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Of the total capacity this year, coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW. Of this, 4,320 MW was from the State sector, 5,490.17 MW from the private sector and 3,025.32 MW from the Central sector.

Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, with a contribution of 1,709.16 MW from the Central sector and 250 MW from the private sector.

Gas-based power plants’ capacity was 1,027.18 MW, with 524.08 MW coming from the State Sector and 503.10 MW from the private sector. The private sector accounted for diesel-based power capacity of 211.70 MW. The State’s overall thermal power capacity stood at 16,033.53 MW as of March 31.

At a recent meeting held by Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) regarding the status of ongoing and upcoming Generation Projects in the State, officials from Tamil Nadu Power Generation Corporation Ltd (TNPGCL) stated that the commercial operation date of North Chennai Thermal Project Stage – III (1x800MW) and Udangudi Thermal Power Project Stage – I (2X660 MW) can be achieved in 2025 itself.

As per CEA data, 1,448 MW of nuclear power capacity came from the Central sector.

The State’s renewable energy installed capacity stood at 25,290.67 MW as of March 31. Of this, 11,739.91 MW was from wind energy, 10,153.58 MW was from solar energy, and 2,178.20 MW was from hydro projects. Biomass, and co-generation bagasse power plants, among others, accounted for the rest of the renewable energy capacity.

Gujarat has taken the lead in wind energy capacity for the second time in a row, with a capacity of 12,677.48 MW.

TNPGCL officials have also told TNERC that the commercial date of operation of Kundah Pumped Storage Hydro Electric Power Project (4 x 125 MW) will be achieved in 2025 itself.

TNERC has suggested that TNPGCL arrange for adequate manpower for smooth operation of new projects as per CEA norms.



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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India

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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India


Representative AI image via Lexica

The US economy may be heading into rough weather — and when America slows down, the world feels the tremors. With Trump tariffs putting global trade under pressure and India closely tied to both the US and China, a possible recession in the US can, at the very least, slow down growth rate in India too.Here’s what economists and investors are saying:
5 key questions answered

1. How close is US to a recession?

Five agencies and experts have following to say:

Agency Key Reasons
Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined at least 15 of the past 18 months; board says a “significant growth slowdown” is baked in, though a full recession is still not its base case Weakness across manufacturing new orders, consumer expectations, and building permits
Reuters economists’ poll of April 7 puts median probability of recession in next 12 months at 45% – highest since Dec 2023 Tariffs already shaving 0.8 percentage point off 2025 GDP forecasts; business sentiment and capex plans falling
Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi in a March 2025 podcast put recession odds at 40% by end-2025 Tariffs, fading fiscal impulse, and tight credit standards
Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers says odds of a 2008-style policy mistake are rising; warns “it’s best not to wait for NBER confirmation” 15-month slide in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, tariff shock to supply chains, and a deeply inverted 2-10 year Treasury curve
Ray Dalio, founder Bridgewater Associates, has said the US is “very close to a recession,” adding that tariffs are “like throwing rocks into the production system” and could lead to “something worse than a recession” if mishandled Tariff shock is crippling supply-chain efficiency; combines with ballooning US debt, a “breakdown of the monetary order,” and intensifying geopolitical conflict — conditions, Dalio says, mirror the 1930s

.

2. US recessions since 2000

Recession Peak Trough Duration (months) Real GDP peak-to-trough Peak Unemployment
Dot-com / 9-11 Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 –0.3% 5.7%
Great Recession Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 –4.0% 10.0%
Covid-19 Recession Feb 2020 Apr 2020 2 (shortest on record) –19.2% (q/q annualized Q2) 14.7%
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3. Can US recession trigger global recessions?

US recessions can go global when they coincide with a systemic financial shock (2008) or an exogenous event (pandemic). Otherwise, spill-overs are milder. IMF has ruled out a global recession.

  • 2001 US recession did not cause a global one. World GDP grew 2.5%, but trade growth collapsed.
  • 2007–09 was a US & global recession — first post-war global contraction (~1.3% world GDP ’09)
  • 2020 Covid lockdown pushed world GDP down by ~3%, deepest since 1945

4. China & India recessions since 2000

Periods of outright GDP contraction (past 25 years)

China

  • Q1 2020 (–6.8% y/y) – first contraction since 1976
    Notes: Annual growth still +2.2% for 2020; 2022 growth just 3% (worst outside 2020)

India

  • FY 2020-21 (–7.3%, with –24% in April–June 2020); RBI classified H1 FY21 as a “technical recession”

Notes: Previous near-recessions

  • 1991 balance-of-payments crisis (real GDP +1%)
  • 2008-09 slowdown (growth fell to 3.1%, but stayed positive)

5. Why a recession in India is different from one in the US

Dimension United States India
General nature of primary shock Financial cycle & consumer credit (housing, credit cards); inventory cycle Supply-side shocks (oil, monsoon), external capital flows, informal-sector demand
Stabilising factors Large: Unemployment insurance, progressive taxes mitigate hit Small; Informal employment > 45% limits social-security reach
Monetary-policy pass-through Fast: Deep bond market, mortgage refinance Slower; Bank-led system, high share of small firms outside formal credit
Job & Wages Unemployment rises sharply but benefits cushion income Job losses push workers back into agriculture/informality, depressing under-employment more than jobless rate
Global spillover A US recession tightens global financial conditions via dollar funding & risk aversion An Indian recession mainly drags on regional trade, remittances, and commodity demand; financial contagion limited by capital controls





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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India

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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Govt on Friday clarified that it is not considering to levy GST on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. Clarifying on reports, which said govt is considering levying GST on UPI transactions over Rs 2,000, the finance ministry said they are false, misleading, and without any basis.
GST is levied on charges, such as Merchant Discount Rate (MDR), relating to payments made using certain instruments. Effective Jan 2020, the CBDT has removed MDR on person-to-merchant UPI transactions. “Since currently no MDR is charged on UPI transactions, there is consequently no GST applicable to these transactions,” the ministry said. UPI transaction values have seen an exponential increase, from Rs 21.3 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 260.6 lakh crore by March 2025.agencies





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