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Trump trade war: US stock market loses $4 trillion in value – The Times of India

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Trump trade war: US stock market loses  trillion in value – The Times of India


People work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. (File photo)

US stocks tumbled Monday as ongoing tariff disputes and concerns over a potential federal government shutdown fueled fears of a looming recession.
Last week’s sharp selloff continued, gaining steam throughout the session, with all three major indexes posting steep losses.
The S&P 500 is now down over 8% from its February 19 all-time high, and the Nasdaq Composite has officially entered correction territory after falling more than 10% from its December peak. A mix of economic uncertainty, fears of a potential recession, and escalating trade tensions has led to a wave of selloffs, wiping out trillions in market value.
Key factors contributing to this decline include high stock valuations compared to historical averages, economic uncertainty triggered by shifting trade policies, and disappointing corporate earnings. Tesla, for example, saw its market value drop by more than $125 billion in a single day. Additionally, companies like Delta Air Lines have cut their profit forecasts, citing concerns over economic conditions. Investors remain on edge as they monitor upcoming inflation reports, interest rate policies, and potential government actions to stabilize the economy.
1. Why are US stock markets falling?
The recent selloff is driven by multiple factors, including trade policy uncertainties, fears of a potential recession, and concerns over high stock valuations. As Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, explains: “The amount of uncertainty that has been created by the tariff wars with regard to Canada, Mexico and Europe is causing boards and C-suites to reconsider the pathway forward.”
2. How much has the market lost so far?
The S&P 500 has fallen over 8.6% from its February 19 high, erasing more than $4 trillion in market value. The Nasdaq Composite is officially in correction territory, down over 10% from its December peak.
3. Which stocks have been hit the hardest?
Technology stocks have suffered the most significant losses. Tesla lost $125 billion in value in a single day, while Apple and Nvidia both fell about 5%. The S&P 500’s technology sector dropped 4.3% overall. Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines’ stock plunged 14% after it cut its first-quarter profit estimates by half.
4. Are investors worried about a recession?
Yes, investor concerns about a potential recession have intensified. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, noted:
“The Trump administration seems a little more accepting of the idea that they’re OK with the market falling, and they’re potentially even OK with a recession in order to exact their broader goals.”
5. How has the White House reacted to the market turmoil?
The White House has pushed back against recession fears, insisting that the economy remains strong despite the market downturn. Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, said: “There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data.”
He also suggested that the uncertainty around tariffs would be resolved soon, emphasizing that tax cuts would help boost investment and real wages. However, investors remain skeptical, with ongoing market volatility reflecting broader concerns.
6. What should investors watch for next?
Investors are keeping an eye on several key factors, including the upcoming inflation report, interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, and potential government measures to stabilize the economy. A further retreat in investor confidence could push markets even lower. As Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, said: “Many people have been worried about elevated valuations among US equities for some time and looking for the catalyst for a market correction.”
With market volatility continuing, investors should stay informed and consider diversification strategies to manage risk.
(With inputs from agencies)





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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year

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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year


Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, while coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW.
| Photo Credit: N. Rajesh

Tamil Nadu’s total installed power capacity was 42,772.20 MW as on March 31 this year, increasing from the previous year’s 39,805.97 MW, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Of the total capacity this year, coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW. Of this, 4,320 MW was from the State sector, 5,490.17 MW from the private sector and 3,025.32 MW from the Central sector.

Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, with a contribution of 1,709.16 MW from the Central sector and 250 MW from the private sector.

Gas-based power plants’ capacity was 1,027.18 MW, with 524.08 MW coming from the State Sector and 503.10 MW from the private sector. The private sector accounted for diesel-based power capacity of 211.70 MW. The State’s overall thermal power capacity stood at 16,033.53 MW as of March 31.

At a recent meeting held by Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) regarding the status of ongoing and upcoming Generation Projects in the State, officials from Tamil Nadu Power Generation Corporation Ltd (TNPGCL) stated that the commercial operation date of North Chennai Thermal Project Stage – III (1x800MW) and Udangudi Thermal Power Project Stage – I (2X660 MW) can be achieved in 2025 itself.

As per CEA data, 1,448 MW of nuclear power capacity came from the Central sector.

The State’s renewable energy installed capacity stood at 25,290.67 MW as of March 31. Of this, 11,739.91 MW was from wind energy, 10,153.58 MW was from solar energy, and 2,178.20 MW was from hydro projects. Biomass, and co-generation bagasse power plants, among others, accounted for the rest of the renewable energy capacity.

Gujarat has taken the lead in wind energy capacity for the second time in a row, with a capacity of 12,677.48 MW.

TNPGCL officials have also told TNERC that the commercial date of operation of Kundah Pumped Storage Hydro Electric Power Project (4 x 125 MW) will be achieved in 2025 itself.

TNERC has suggested that TNPGCL arrange for adequate manpower for smooth operation of new projects as per CEA norms.



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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India

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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India


Representative AI image via Lexica

The US economy may be heading into rough weather — and when America slows down, the world feels the tremors. With Trump tariffs putting global trade under pressure and India closely tied to both the US and China, a possible recession in the US can, at the very least, slow down growth rate in India too.Here’s what economists and investors are saying:
5 key questions answered

1. How close is US to a recession?

Five agencies and experts have following to say:

Agency Key Reasons
Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined at least 15 of the past 18 months; board says a “significant growth slowdown” is baked in, though a full recession is still not its base case Weakness across manufacturing new orders, consumer expectations, and building permits
Reuters economists’ poll of April 7 puts median probability of recession in next 12 months at 45% – highest since Dec 2023 Tariffs already shaving 0.8 percentage point off 2025 GDP forecasts; business sentiment and capex plans falling
Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi in a March 2025 podcast put recession odds at 40% by end-2025 Tariffs, fading fiscal impulse, and tight credit standards
Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers says odds of a 2008-style policy mistake are rising; warns “it’s best not to wait for NBER confirmation” 15-month slide in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, tariff shock to supply chains, and a deeply inverted 2-10 year Treasury curve
Ray Dalio, founder Bridgewater Associates, has said the US is “very close to a recession,” adding that tariffs are “like throwing rocks into the production system” and could lead to “something worse than a recession” if mishandled Tariff shock is crippling supply-chain efficiency; combines with ballooning US debt, a “breakdown of the monetary order,” and intensifying geopolitical conflict — conditions, Dalio says, mirror the 1930s

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2. US recessions since 2000

Recession Peak Trough Duration (months) Real GDP peak-to-trough Peak Unemployment
Dot-com / 9-11 Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 –0.3% 5.7%
Great Recession Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 –4.0% 10.0%
Covid-19 Recession Feb 2020 Apr 2020 2 (shortest on record) –19.2% (q/q annualized Q2) 14.7%
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3. Can US recession trigger global recessions?

US recessions can go global when they coincide with a systemic financial shock (2008) or an exogenous event (pandemic). Otherwise, spill-overs are milder. IMF has ruled out a global recession.

  • 2001 US recession did not cause a global one. World GDP grew 2.5%, but trade growth collapsed.
  • 2007–09 was a US & global recession — first post-war global contraction (~1.3% world GDP ’09)
  • 2020 Covid lockdown pushed world GDP down by ~3%, deepest since 1945

4. China & India recessions since 2000

Periods of outright GDP contraction (past 25 years)

China

  • Q1 2020 (–6.8% y/y) – first contraction since 1976
    Notes: Annual growth still +2.2% for 2020; 2022 growth just 3% (worst outside 2020)

India

  • FY 2020-21 (–7.3%, with –24% in April–June 2020); RBI classified H1 FY21 as a “technical recession”

Notes: Previous near-recessions

  • 1991 balance-of-payments crisis (real GDP +1%)
  • 2008-09 slowdown (growth fell to 3.1%, but stayed positive)

5. Why a recession in India is different from one in the US

Dimension United States India
General nature of primary shock Financial cycle & consumer credit (housing, credit cards); inventory cycle Supply-side shocks (oil, monsoon), external capital flows, informal-sector demand
Stabilising factors Large: Unemployment insurance, progressive taxes mitigate hit Small; Informal employment > 45% limits social-security reach
Monetary-policy pass-through Fast: Deep bond market, mortgage refinance Slower; Bank-led system, high share of small firms outside formal credit
Job & Wages Unemployment rises sharply but benefits cushion income Job losses push workers back into agriculture/informality, depressing under-employment more than jobless rate
Global spillover A US recession tightens global financial conditions via dollar funding & risk aversion An Indian recession mainly drags on regional trade, remittances, and commodity demand; financial contagion limited by capital controls





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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India

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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Govt on Friday clarified that it is not considering to levy GST on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. Clarifying on reports, which said govt is considering levying GST on UPI transactions over Rs 2,000, the finance ministry said they are false, misleading, and without any basis.
GST is levied on charges, such as Merchant Discount Rate (MDR), relating to payments made using certain instruments. Effective Jan 2020, the CBDT has removed MDR on person-to-merchant UPI transactions. “Since currently no MDR is charged on UPI transactions, there is consequently no GST applicable to these transactions,” the ministry said. UPI transaction values have seen an exponential increase, from Rs 21.3 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 260.6 lakh crore by March 2025.agencies





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