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Trump tariffs and trade tensions: Three reasons why India is best placed in Asia to outperform – The Times of India

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Trump tariffs and trade tensions: Three reasons why India is best placed in Asia to outperform – The Times of India


Trump’s tariffs: India’s low goods exports to the US could be its saving grace, says Morgan Stanley. (AI image)

For long India has been a laggard when it came to export manufactured goods but very strong in exporting services to the world. With the US turning on the heat on its major trading partners from which it imports manufactured goods worth billions, India’s low goods exports to the US could be its saving grace, a report by global financial major Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday.
“Trade tensions will likely remain a drag on Asia’s growth outlook. We highlight the reasons why India is still the best placed in the region against this backdrop – low goods exports, strong services exports and policy support for domestic demand,” a report by Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and three of his team members said.
“Investors remain very skeptical about India’s growth narrative. But we think the reversal of the unwarranted double tightening of fiscal and monetary policies will help drive the recovery,” the report noted.
“(Monetary) easing is hitting full throttle across three fronts – rates, liquidity injection and regulatory easing. Trade tensions will weigh on the region’s trade outlook, but India is less exposed on account of its low goods exports to GDP ratio. (At the same time), the policy support which will turn around its domestic demand outlook will allow India to outperform.”
Also Read | Donald Trump’s tariffs: India may be among least vulnerable Asian economies in trade war with US – but there’s a catch!
The Morgan Stanley report asserts that India demonstrates resilience in economic performance, particularly during global trade deceleration, due to two significant factors.

  • Firstly, the nation maintains the region’s lowest ratio of goods exports to GDP.
  • Secondly, its services exports exhibit robust defensive characteristics whilst consistently expanding market share, providing a counterbalance to potential trade impacts.

Why did the Indian economy slow down?
Looking back, it is evident that the economic slowdown resulted from an unanticipated concurrent restriction of both fiscal and monetary measures. In the context of India, despite stable macroeconomic indicators showing no warning signs, the implementation of stringent fiscal and monetary controls led to diminished growth rates.
Government spending – which accounts for 28% of GDP – contracted by -6%Y at the trough in Jul-24 on a three-month trailing basis amid elections, and then recovered at a slower-than-expected pace post-elections, especially on the capital expenditure front (which averaged -12% in May-Nov-24 but has now recovered to 37%Y 3MMA in Jan-25). Monetary policy was tightened on all three fronts of policy rates, liquidity and regulatory measures, says the report.
What’s the road to economic recovery?
Recovery will continue to firm over the coming months. Green shoots are already emerging in recent data. For example, goods and services tax (GST) revenue – has accelerated to an average of 10.7% in Jan-Feb 2025.

GST revenue is reaccelerating

GST revenue is reaccelerating

According to the Morgan Stanley report, recovery will be driven by:
1) Sustained momentum in government capex spending: Central government capital expenditure growth has accelerated markedly in December and January. In the F2026 budget plan, capital expenditure is estimated to grow at 10.1%Y, indicating continued support for public capex.

Recovery in government capex spending underway

Recovery in government capex spending underway

2) Triple easing on monetary policy: Morgan Stanley expects policy easing across policy rates, liquidity and regulatory front to support the growth recovery. It expects a second 25bps rate cut at the April meeting with risks of more rate cuts if the growth recovery plays out more slowly than it expects. RBI is expected to continue to manage liquidity conditions proactively, especially in the context of the seasonal rise in liquidity deficit towards financial year end (March).
Also Read | How will Elon Musk-led DOGE’s slashing of federal spending impact Indian IT companies?
To the extent that RBI has begun easing regulatory tightening on non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) – as evident in the recent rollback of the 25ppt increase in risk weights for bank credit to NBFCs – Morgan Stanley believes this would help improve liquidity accessibility for NBFC lenders and end borrowers.
3) Moderation in food inflation lifting real household incomes: With food inflation having since moderated from its October peak of 10.9%Y to 6%Y in January, headline CPI has taken a step down to a five-month low of 4.3%Y. With the trend in high frequency food prices indicating continued %Y moderation in February and March month-to-date, Morgan Stanley expects the disinflation trend at the headline CPI level to continue.

Food inflation trending downwards

Food inflation trending downwards

4) Improvement in services exports: Morgan Stanley believes India’s services exports should remain relatively healthy. During times when the global trade environment turns down, goods exports may contract but services generally do not. The strength in services exports should also reflect in a pickup in urban jobs growth and hence private consumption with a lag.
Can India avoid tariffs, reach a trade deal with the US?
India faces significant exposure to potential tariff escalation within Asia, particularly concerning reciprocal tariffs, due to its high import tariff rates, substantial non-tariff barriers, and considerable trade surplus with the US. The precise impact remains uncertain, as the US administration has not yet provided detailed clarification regarding the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, says the Morgan Stanley report.

India more exposed to direct tariff risks

India more exposed to direct tariff risks

India’s vulnerability extends to its pharmaceutical exports, which constitute 2.8% of total exports and 0.3% of GDP, as these products have been identified by President Trump as potential targets for tariff implementation.
Whilst a trade agreement between India and the US appears achievable by fall 2025, the negotiation process is likely to be complex and time-consuming due to various bilateral trade complications.
“While India is exposed to direct tariff risks, we have consistently highlighted that the bigger effect on growth from tariffs likely comes via the indirect transmission channel of weaker corporate confidence from heightened policy uncertainty and the spillovers to capex and trade cycle. From this perspective, India’s low goods trade orientation and ability to generate domestic demand offset mean it is among the least exposed economies within the region from an indirect effect standpoint,” says the report.
Also Read | Turnaround from importer to exporter! India now shipping Apple product components to China & Vietnam





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Samsung may shift production to India from Vietnam amidst Trump’s tariff moves; wants one more year of PLI sops – Times of India

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Samsung may shift production to India from Vietnam amidst Trump’s tariff moves;  wants one more year of PLI sops – Times of India


Samsung is expected to receive approximately ₹3,200 crore in incentives for its four-year participation in the scheme. (AI image)

Samsung has sought an extension of one year for receiving incentives under the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for smartphones, according to officials familiar with the matter. The South Korean electronics company missed out on incentives for one year of its five-year period, which concluded this March.
Under the current PLI scheme for smartphones that started in FY21, the Korean company’s tenure ended on March 31. Samsung failed to receive incentives in the scheme’s second year due to unmet production targets. The company is now requesting an additional year to compensate for the missed period, aiming to secure benefits for a full five years.
“They (Samsung) want to get incentives for five years…we are examining the issue and will decide accordingly,” one official told ET.
Currently, Samsung is expected to receive approximately ₹3,200 crore in incentives for its four-year participation in the scheme, according to officials.
Also Read | Goodbye China, Namaste India! Laptop brands shift production as PLI scheme bears fruit, Trump’s tariffs loom large
The enterprise is currently evaluating options to shift some production from Vietnam to India, considering the US-led tariff disputes. The organisation is assessing potential fiscal incentives available in the current period, according to an official. Whilst Samsung’s scheme tenure has concluded, other PLI scheme participants, including Apple’s vendors, are in their final year.
Additionally, Samsung presently fulfils most US requirements from its Vietnamese facilities, whilst Indian-manufactured devices are shipped to other global markets. The organisation aims to decrease its Vietnamese manufacturing concentration to prevent potential future tariff implications, according to industry specialists.
The US administration had initially imposed 46% tariffs on Vietnam, considerably higher than India’s 26%, due to Vietnam’s substantial trade surplus with the United States. These reciprocal tariffs were subsequently suspended for 90 days.
Following the suspension, both India and Vietnam now face equivalent tariff structures.
Also Read | ‘India a very hot market but…’: Elon Musk-led Tesla says 100% car tariffs make customers anxious
India presents a viable alternative for Samsung’s manufacturing needs. Based on industry data, while Samsung’s Indian facilities can produce 70 million phones yearly, current production stands at 43-45 million units, with 23-25 million serving domestic needs and the remainder going to exports. The company maintains flexibility to boost capacity within two to three months if needed.
In FY25, Samsung’s smartphone exports from India reached ₹30,000 crore ($3.5 billion), compared to Vietnam’s $35 billion, with $10 billion specifically destined for the US market.
“A majority of this ($10 billion) can now be shifted to India in the short term, starting in the current quarter,” said one of the persons cited.
Despite Samsung’s long-standing presence in India and its participation in the smartphone PLI scheme, the company’s export figures have remained unchanged.





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‘Gold lasts 5 generations’: Harsh Goenka’s witty post on wife’s gold buying is a lesson in investment strategy | India-Business News – Times of India

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‘Gold lasts 5 generations’: Harsh Goenka’s witty post on wife’s gold buying is a lesson in investment strategy | India-Business News – Times of India


Gold prices are hitting lifetime highs and India Inc veterans have been hailing Indian homemakers for their wisdom in storing the yellow metal. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) industrialist Harsh Goenka lauded his wife’s gold investment strategy. This comes at a time when gold prices have crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark.
The RPG group chairman took to X, and shared a conversation with his spouse. The post said, ”10 years ago, I bought a car for ₹8 lakh. She bought gold for ₹8 lakh. Today, the car is worth ₹1.5 lakh. Her gold is worth ₹32 lakh.”
He further added that wives are smarter.
Sharing another conversation, he wrote on X, “I said, ‘Let’s skip gold and go on a vacation?’ She replied, ‘Vacation lasts 5 days. Gold lasts 5 generations.’ I bought a phone for ₹1 lakh. She bought gold. Now, the phone’s worth ₹8,000. Her gold is ₹2 lakh.”
Raj Nayak, an influencer, commented on Goenka’s post, saying,”Gold may last generations. But we don’t.That five day vacation? It turns into stories, smiles, and moments that lights up your soul for a lifetime.The phone might be worth ₹8K now, but that late night call to your son, daughter, or mother… that photo you clicked by the ocean… that memory? Priceless.You can buy what appreciates in value, or you can invest in what makes you feel alive.”
A few days ago Uday Kotak, Founder & Director, Kotak Mahindra Bank had also hailed Indian housewives as the ‘smartest fund managers’. “The performance of gold over time highlights that the Indian housewife is the smartest fund manager in the world. Governments, central banks, economists, who support pump priming, high deficit funding, may need to take a leaf from India, a net importer of store of value forever!,” he wrote on X.
Gold MCX futures have surpassed Rs 1 lakh, marking an unprecedented milestone. Gold continues to serve as a reliable investment during periods of market instability. The rise in gold prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties, growing tensions between China and the US, whilst a declining dollar has further strengthened this upward trend.
Market analysts suggest that current valuations reflect heightened geopolitical risks, influenced by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and concerns about economic stagnation with inflation. These factors are expected to contribute to additional gains in gold prices.
Global central banks have consistently increased their gold acquisitions over multiple quarters, building their reserves to record levels. Notably, the RBI has been actively purchasing gold and relocating substantial amounts back to Indian territory.





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Stock markets decline in early trade after 7-day rally

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Stock markets decline in early trade after 7-day rally


Representative image
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Thursday (April 23, 2025) amid profit-taking after a seven-day rally and muted trend in Asian markets.

The 30-share BSE benchmark declined 242.01 points to 79,874.48 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went down by 72.3 points to 24,256.65.

In the past seven trading days, the BSE benchmark gauge zoomed 6,269.34 points or 8.48% and the Nifty jumped 1,929.8 points or 8.61%.

From the Sensex firms, Eternal, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.

IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Nestle, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, and Tata Motors were among the gainers.

In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi index, Shanghai SSE Composite, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were trading lower while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 quoted in the positive territory.

U.S. markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday (April 23, 2025). Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.50%, S&P 500 surged 1.67% and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.07 per cent.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.12% to $66.20 a barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹3,332.93 crore on Wednesday (April 23, 2025), according to exchange data.

The BSE benchmark jumped 520.90 points or 0.65% to settle at 80,116.49, the highest closing level since December 18, on Wednesday (April 23, 2025). The Nifty rallied 161.70 points or 0.67% to 24,328.95.



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