Stampede shouldn’t kill Vijay’s campaign. It should change him

The stampede that killed at least 40 people at Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) president Vijay’s roadshow in Karur on Saturday evening showed how frenzy can turn fatal in five minutes. India’s history of stampedes shows that we have learned precious little from such recurring tragedies. And this time too, there will be lessons – if anyone is willing to learn.

While the common trigger is often panic, studies show that a stampede happens due to what scientists call a ‘black hole effect’: In a tightly packed crowd, physical forces are transmitted between individuals, adding up to create unpredictable and powerful force chains that move people uncontrollably (definition mined by AI).

A judicial inquiry is on to find the reasons for the Karur tragedy. Once the grief abates, politics will rear its head. Blame will be laid at many doors – some rightfully so. The police cannot pass the buck by saying the application for police permission for the rally mentioned 10,000 as the expected crowd strength against the actual turnout which was three times more. Having seen Vijay’s rallies so far, the police should’ve known better.

Such a tragedy could happen at any political rally where tens of thousands of people gather, but TVK cannot escape the blame. TVK is guilty of making several wrong decisions – from wrong (perhaps intentional) estimation of crowd strength to inadequate arrangements at the venue – but a bigger problem is something more inherent: the way TVK sees and projects Vijay. As this column discussed four weeks ago, brand Vijay is being built with bouncers and bombast – something that may work for a film star but can be disastrous for a politician. Politics has its share of drama, but theatrics cannot substitute substance.

Vijay’s campaign vehicle moving through surging crowds without barricades makes an enthralling social media visual; it’s also an invitation to a disaster – such as the one unfolded in Karur. Film stars triggering fan frenzy is not uncommon in India, but should Vijay transition into a successful politician, he should cultivate a cadre base that is more disciplined by his policies and promises than disoriented by his filmy aura.

Vijay, personally, cannot be held responsible for what led to the Karur tragedy, but what followed it was his failure, even cowardice. The actor, who took five hours to reach the venue through the milling crowds, didn’t take five minutes to disappear from the scene. I am not saying he should have stayed back in the melee, but he should have returned to console the grieving families. If his managers still thought his presence would trigger another stampede (which, sadly, they continue to believe), he should’ve at least spoken to the press at the Trichy airport or Chennai airport before heading home.

If chief minister M K Stalin rushed in and spent the night at Karur, and opposition leader Edappadi K Palaniswami visited the families the next morning, it shows how seasoned they are as politicians, whatever be their intentions. Vijay took to social media to convey his grief and condolences. His offer of double the solatium (`20 lakh) that the govt announced (`10 lakh) for each victim’s kin isn’t worth half the gesture of little-known politicians who made a beeline to the grieving homes.

This is the first crisis that politician Vijay faces on the ground, and there could be more (God forbid, they shouldn’t cost lives). What changes will he make when he resumes his campaign? Bouncers may continue to protect Vijay from the fan mobs that his team so gleefully fear. But who will protect the voter on the street who wants to come, watch and hear the star who promises the moon?

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