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Rupee slumps 84 paise to close at 85.61 against U.S. dollar

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Rupee slumps 84 paise to close at 85.61 against U.S. dollar


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| Photo Credit: Reuters

Rupee depreciated sharply by 84 paise to close at 85.61 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed down by heightened geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.

Forex traders said investors resorted to risk aversion in the domestic markets after the Pakistani military attempted a number of military targets in northern and western India using drones and missiles that were neutralised by Indian defence system.

Besides, heightened geopolitical risks, positive U.S. dollar index and a rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the rupee.

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At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 84.61 and moved between an intra-day high of 84.52 and a low of 85.77 against the greenback. The unit ended the session sharply lower at 85.61 (provisional), registering a fall of 84 paise over its previous closing level.

On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated 42 paise to close at 84.77 against the U.S. dollar, following India’s military strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

Meanwhile, a top American military commander has said that the U.S. is “watching the situation very closely” after Indian military strikes on terror targets in PoK and Pakistan’s Punjab province.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on the strong dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Any further escalation may further pressurise the rupee.

“However, FII inflows may support the rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from weekly unemployment claims data from the US. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 85.20 to 86,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Meanwhile, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday told an all-party meeting that at least 100 terrorists were killed when India struck terror sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir under the still ongoing Operation Sindoor.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.46% at 100.07.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.05% to $61.76 per barrel in futures trade.

The domestic equity market faced heavy volatility in the fag end of trading on Thursday after reports surfaced that the Indian Armed forces foiled attempts by the Pakistani military to engage a number of military targets in northern and western India.

The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 411.97 points, or 0.51%, to close at 80,334.81, while the Nifty slumped 140.60 points, or 0.58%, to settle at 24,273.80.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹2,585.86 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) left interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% band as widely expected, but Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said it was not very clear if the economy would continue its steady pace of growth or wilt under the mounting pressure of trade uncertainty and a possible spike in inflation.



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Prosus invested $8.6 billion in India, says CEO Bloisi – Times of India

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Prosus invested .6 billion in India, says CEO Bloisi – Times of India


BENGALURU: Netherlands-based global tech investor Prosus invested over $8.6 billion in India, making it one of its strategic markets, CEO Fabricio Bloisi said in a letter to shareholders on Thursday.The update follows Swiggy’s IPO last year and a recent investment in the ride-hailing platform Rapido, which Bloisi said is growing over 100% year-on-year and facilitating more than 3 million rides per day.“India presents Prosus with incredible opportunity,” Bloisi wrote, noting the region’s role in the group’s ambition to build the leading lifestyle e-commerce ecosystem across India, Europe, and Latin America. Prosus’ e-commerce segment outperformed internal expectations in the financial year ended March, with adjusted EBIT (aEBIT) surpassing $435 million – above the $400 million target set earlier. The company is now aiming to deliver a similar level of incremental profitability in FY26.Key portfolio companies delivered strong results. OLX, one of the largest classifieds businesses globally, grew revenue by nearly 20% and expanded aEBIT by over 50% to $270 million. iFood processed more than 120 million orders in a month and grew its aEBIT to over $200 million, more than double the previous year. Its subscription service, Clube, is now contributing around 40 million monthly orders, with increased user frequency and retention.Prosus also emphasised capital discipline, noting over $35 billion returned to shareholders through its ongoing buyback programme. This has reduced the free float of Prosus by 27% and Naspers by 25%. Portfolio pruning yielded $2.4 billion, driven by stake sales in Swiggy, Trip, Tazz, and the Latin America and Africa payments business. Bloisi said the company will now focus on integrating two recent acquisitions – Just Eat Takeaway in Europe and Despegar in Latin America – over initiating new investments.AI-driven innovation remains a priority, with Prosus Ventures backing firms such as Corti, Zapia, Altera, and Taktile. “We are just getting started,” Bloisi wrote, completing his first fiscal year as CEO.





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FMCG volume growth slows to 5.1% in March quarter; rural markets drive growth while metros drag volume

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FMCG volume growth slows to 5.1% in March quarter; rural markets drive growth while metros drag volume


The volume growth of India’s FMCG industry has slowed down in the March quarter to 5.1%, driven by increased consumer purchases of small-value packs, according to the latest report from data analytics firm NielsenIQ.

Volume growth is slowing across categories, and non-food segments are still outpacing food in the FMCG sector. The industry reported a volume growth of 6.1% in the March quarter of 2024.

Moreover, continuing the trends from the last five consecutive quarters, the rural market, which is mainly a small economy pack units market, continued to grow faster than the urban market. However, its growth has also slowed down.

“In Q1 2025, rural consumer demand grew at a slower pace compared to Q1 2024, yet it remained four times faster than growth in urban areas, where consumption further decelerated. Rural markets continued to outperform urban counterparts across most regions of India,” it said.

The FMCG industry recorded higher unit growth than volume growth in the March quarter, indicating a consumer preference shift toward smaller pack sizes, according to the latest NielsenIQ FMCG quarterly snapshot.

In addition, small players — mostly unbranded — have gained ground, with double-digit volume growth, helped by the resurgence of the rural market, inflation, and changing market dynamics.

Overall, the FMCG sector reported an 11% year-on-year growth for the March quarter, in which volume growth contributed 5.1% along with a 5.6% increase in prices.

Besides sales volume through traditional trade, which includes kirana and neighbourhood shops, has increased. In the metro market, quick-commerce also strengthened its position.

“Food consumption growth slowed to 4.9% in Q1 2025 from 6% in Q4 2024, primarily due to decreased volumes in staple categories like edible oils and Palm Oil, which saw price increases,” it said.

On a year-on-year basis food consumption growth saw a slight improvement from 4.4% in Q1, 2024.

In the March quarter, the food sector reported 7.2% price growth, compared to 0.9% of the corresponding period a year ago.

Similarly, the Home and personal care (HPC) categories experienced a consumption growth of 5.7% in Q1 2025, driven by higher demand in rural areas. However, this growth is still lower than the 10.8% volume growth in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

While “Over-the-counter categories, such as rubefacients and analgesics, saw a 14% growth in value sales in Q1 2025, driven by a 10.4% increase in prices,” the report said. E-commerce continues to strengthen its presence, significantly impacting the share of offline channels, including modern trade (such as malls) and traditional trade.

“This growth is largely volume-driven, supported by increasing online shopper penetration, more purchase occasions, and increasing basket sizes,” it said.

In eight metros, e-com reported a 13% increase in the top 8 metros (based on data collected from 72 categories), while its all-India urban growth was at 5%.

March quarter also witnessed “steady gains” for small manufacturers, which are leading the way in driving consumption, supported by steady volume growth in both Food and HPC categories, it said.

“In contrast, larger players are experiencing slower volume growth, which has halved compared to Q4 2024. Low base, rural growth, and easing out inflation are helping small players to outpace FMCG growth,” the report said.

Small FMCG manufacturers having a turnover below ₹100 crore per year reported a volume growth of 11.9%, and mid players with a turnover between ₹100 to ₹1,000 crore reported a volume growth of 6.4%. Large manufacturers up to ₹5,000 crore recorded a 5.3% volume growth.

However, large FMCG makers, the giants with over ₹5,000 crore turnover, had 1.6% volume growth, which is much lower than the 8.1% volume growth. Though they still control 46% of the sales.

NielsenIQ India Head of Customer Success, FMCG, Roosevelt Dsouza said, “The FMCG sector is showing mixed signals — while volume growth is slowing across categories, non-food segments are still outpacing food. Inflation is easing overall, but high edible oil prices are keeping staples expensive. The rural markets continue to drive growth, whereas urban metros continue to see a shift toward e-commerce with higher shopper engagement.”



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India to outpace global peers as growth slows worldwide: Kotak Report – Times of India

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India to outpace global peers as growth slows worldwide: Kotak Report – Times of India


Global economic growth is set to slow in the coming months, with major economies such as the United States and China projected to experience notable deceleration. However, India is expected to outpace global peers amid this global downturn, according to a recent report by Kotak Alternate Asset Managers.The report forecasts a 90 basis point slowdown in the US economy and a 60 basis point decline for China, while highlighting that India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy.A key factor supporting India’s economic resilience is its strong manufacturing performance, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures continuing to indicate positive momentum—setting India apart from many global counterparts.Despite mixed signals from high-frequency indicators, India’s overall macroeconomic outlook remains robust. Although credit growth and government expenditure have shown some moderation, the report points to other encouraging trends that continue to support economic activity.Among them is a favourable monsoon forecast, which is expected to lift rural demand and improve the inflation outlook, providing a timely boost to the agricultural sector.Indian equity markets have also displayed significant resilience, despite softer-than-expected Q4 FY25 earnings and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. The report notes that markets have rebounded sharply from recent lows.Investor sentiment remains buoyant, with Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continuing as net buyers and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) returning to net buying positions for the second consecutive month. A declining risk premium on Indian assets has contributed to expanding equity valuations.Still, the report cautions that volatility may persist in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.The Indian rupee (INR) has also gained strength against the US dollar, backed by a combination of factors such as a weaker dollar, renewed FPI inflows, and falling oil prices—all of which have improved India’s trade balance.However, the upside in the rupee has been partly capped by the Reserve Bank of India, which used the currency’s strength as an opportunity to build foreign exchange reserves. These reserves have surged by USD 50 billion, reaching USD 688 billion in just two months.Looking ahead, the narrowing yield gap between Indian and US 10-year bonds, along with sustained dollar weakness, is expected to keep the rupees relatively strong in the short term





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