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Rupee dives deeper amid global turmoil; ends 45 paise down at 86.71 against dollar

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Rupee dives deeper amid global turmoil; ends 45 paise down at 86.71 against dollar


In the last four trading sessions the rupee has lost 104 paise against the U.S. dollar. File
| Photo Credit: V.V. Krishnan

The rupee extended its losing streak for the fourth straight session and settled 45 paise lower at 86.71 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (April 9, 2025), amid escalating tariff turbulence globally even as the Reserve Bank reduced key interest rate by 25 basis points as a growth-stimulus measure.

Even though crude oil prices fell sharply to a record level and the American currency remained weak, the Indian currency stayed under pressure due to incessant outflow of foreign funds and lacklustre sentiment in the domestic equity markets, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.52 and moved between a high of 86.47 and the low of 86.71 against the greenback during intraday, facing extreme volatility. The unit settled at 86.71 (provisional) against the dollar, sharply lower by 45 paise from the previous closing level.

On Tuesday (April 8, 2025), the Indian currency crashed 50 paise to settle at 86.26 against the dollar. This was the steepest single-day decline for the rupee since January 13, when it lost 66 paise.

In the preceding two sessions on Monday and Friday, the rupee had lost 32 paise and 14 paise, respectively.

In the last four trading sessions the rupee has lost 104 paise against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said the rupee declined amid dented global market sentiments owing to trade war between the U.S. and China after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 50% tariff on China.

“Weak domestic markets and FII outflows also pressurised the rupee. However, weakness in crude oil prices and a decline in the U.S. dollar index cushioned the downside. RBI cut repo rate by 25 bps to 6%, in line with expectations,” he said, adding, “investors may remain cautious ahead of the inflation data from the U.S. The USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 86.30 to 86.90.”

RBI’s monetary policy committee on Wednesday (April 9, 2025) decided to slash the key interest rate by 25 basis points, reducing it for the second time in a row, paving the way to cut financing cost and stimulate economic activities.

At the same time, citing global uncertainties over tariff moves the central bank lowered the country’s growth projection for FY26 at 6.5%, from 6.7% estimated earlier.

About RBI’s currency management strategy during a press conference after the latest bi-monthly monetary policy announcement, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank does not target any level.

“So far as currency management is concerned we do not actually intervene in the currency management. It’s only… for excessive or disruptive volatility that we do. So we do not try to manage or target any reach or band or level of the Indian rupee,” Mr. Malhotra said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.70% lower at 101.98.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 3.82% to its record low level of $60.42 per barrel in futures trade.

Analysts said the new set of U.S. tariffs including the massive 104% levy announced on Chinese imports effective Wednesday (April 9, 2025), dented sentiments further.

Stock market benchmarks that rebounded from record low levels on Tuesday (April 8, 2025) closed Wednesday’s (April 9, 2025) session significantly lower with the 30-share BSE Sensex ending 379.93 points, or 0.51%, down at 73,847.15, while the Nifty falling 136.70 points, or 0.61%, to 22,399.15 points.

On Monday, both the indices crashed over 5% before closing nearly 3% lower.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹4,994.24 crore on a net basis on Tuesday (April 8, 2025), according to exchange data.



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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year

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Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year


Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, while coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW.
| Photo Credit: N. Rajesh

Tamil Nadu’s total installed power capacity was 42,772.20 MW as on March 31 this year, increasing from the previous year’s 39,805.97 MW, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Of the total capacity this year, coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW. Of this, 4,320 MW was from the State sector, 5,490.17 MW from the private sector and 3,025.32 MW from the Central sector.

Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, with a contribution of 1,709.16 MW from the Central sector and 250 MW from the private sector.

Gas-based power plants’ capacity was 1,027.18 MW, with 524.08 MW coming from the State Sector and 503.10 MW from the private sector. The private sector accounted for diesel-based power capacity of 211.70 MW. The State’s overall thermal power capacity stood at 16,033.53 MW as of March 31.

At a recent meeting held by Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) regarding the status of ongoing and upcoming Generation Projects in the State, officials from Tamil Nadu Power Generation Corporation Ltd (TNPGCL) stated that the commercial operation date of North Chennai Thermal Project Stage – III (1x800MW) and Udangudi Thermal Power Project Stage – I (2X660 MW) can be achieved in 2025 itself.

As per CEA data, 1,448 MW of nuclear power capacity came from the Central sector.

The State’s renewable energy installed capacity stood at 25,290.67 MW as of March 31. Of this, 11,739.91 MW was from wind energy, 10,153.58 MW was from solar energy, and 2,178.20 MW was from hydro projects. Biomass, and co-generation bagasse power plants, among others, accounted for the rest of the renewable energy capacity.

Gujarat has taken the lead in wind energy capacity for the second time in a row, with a capacity of 12,677.48 MW.

TNPGCL officials have also told TNERC that the commercial date of operation of Kundah Pumped Storage Hydro Electric Power Project (4 x 125 MW) will be achieved in 2025 itself.

TNERC has suggested that TNPGCL arrange for adequate manpower for smooth operation of new projects as per CEA norms.



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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India

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Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India


Representative AI image via Lexica

The US economy may be heading into rough weather — and when America slows down, the world feels the tremors. With Trump tariffs putting global trade under pressure and India closely tied to both the US and China, a possible recession in the US can, at the very least, slow down growth rate in India too.Here’s what economists and investors are saying:
5 key questions answered

1. How close is US to a recession?

Five agencies and experts have following to say:

Agency Key Reasons
Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined at least 15 of the past 18 months; board says a “significant growth slowdown” is baked in, though a full recession is still not its base case Weakness across manufacturing new orders, consumer expectations, and building permits
Reuters economists’ poll of April 7 puts median probability of recession in next 12 months at 45% – highest since Dec 2023 Tariffs already shaving 0.8 percentage point off 2025 GDP forecasts; business sentiment and capex plans falling
Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi in a March 2025 podcast put recession odds at 40% by end-2025 Tariffs, fading fiscal impulse, and tight credit standards
Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers says odds of a 2008-style policy mistake are rising; warns “it’s best not to wait for NBER confirmation” 15-month slide in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, tariff shock to supply chains, and a deeply inverted 2-10 year Treasury curve
Ray Dalio, founder Bridgewater Associates, has said the US is “very close to a recession,” adding that tariffs are “like throwing rocks into the production system” and could lead to “something worse than a recession” if mishandled Tariff shock is crippling supply-chain efficiency; combines with ballooning US debt, a “breakdown of the monetary order,” and intensifying geopolitical conflict — conditions, Dalio says, mirror the 1930s

.

2. US recessions since 2000

Recession Peak Trough Duration (months) Real GDP peak-to-trough Peak Unemployment
Dot-com / 9-11 Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 –0.3% 5.7%
Great Recession Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 –4.0% 10.0%
Covid-19 Recession Feb 2020 Apr 2020 2 (shortest on record) –19.2% (q/q annualized Q2) 14.7%
.

3. Can US recession trigger global recessions?

US recessions can go global when they coincide with a systemic financial shock (2008) or an exogenous event (pandemic). Otherwise, spill-overs are milder. IMF has ruled out a global recession.

  • 2001 US recession did not cause a global one. World GDP grew 2.5%, but trade growth collapsed.
  • 2007–09 was a US & global recession — first post-war global contraction (~1.3% world GDP ’09)
  • 2020 Covid lockdown pushed world GDP down by ~3%, deepest since 1945

4. China & India recessions since 2000

Periods of outright GDP contraction (past 25 years)

China

  • Q1 2020 (–6.8% y/y) – first contraction since 1976
    Notes: Annual growth still +2.2% for 2020; 2022 growth just 3% (worst outside 2020)

India

  • FY 2020-21 (–7.3%, with –24% in April–June 2020); RBI classified H1 FY21 as a “technical recession”

Notes: Previous near-recessions

  • 1991 balance-of-payments crisis (real GDP +1%)
  • 2008-09 slowdown (growth fell to 3.1%, but stayed positive)

5. Why a recession in India is different from one in the US

Dimension United States India
General nature of primary shock Financial cycle & consumer credit (housing, credit cards); inventory cycle Supply-side shocks (oil, monsoon), external capital flows, informal-sector demand
Stabilising factors Large: Unemployment insurance, progressive taxes mitigate hit Small; Informal employment > 45% limits social-security reach
Monetary-policy pass-through Fast: Deep bond market, mortgage refinance Slower; Bank-led system, high share of small firms outside formal credit
Job & Wages Unemployment rises sharply but benefits cushion income Job losses push workers back into agriculture/informality, depressing under-employment more than jobless rate
Global spillover A US recession tightens global financial conditions via dollar funding & risk aversion An Indian recession mainly drags on regional trade, remittances, and commodity demand; financial contagion limited by capital controls





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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India

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No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Govt on Friday clarified that it is not considering to levy GST on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. Clarifying on reports, which said govt is considering levying GST on UPI transactions over Rs 2,000, the finance ministry said they are false, misleading, and without any basis.
GST is levied on charges, such as Merchant Discount Rate (MDR), relating to payments made using certain instruments. Effective Jan 2020, the CBDT has removed MDR on person-to-merchant UPI transactions. “Since currently no MDR is charged on UPI transactions, there is consequently no GST applicable to these transactions,” the ministry said. UPI transaction values have seen an exponential increase, from Rs 21.3 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 260.6 lakh crore by March 2025.agencies





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