Connect with us

BUSINESS

Retail inflation dips to nearly 6-yr low of 3.34% – Times of India

Published

3 days ago

on

Retail inflation dips to nearly 6-yr low of 3.34% – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Retail inflation slowed to a more than 5-year low in March on the back of sharply moderating food prices, paving the way for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates in the months ahead to support growth against the backdrop of global uncertainty.
Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose an annual 3.3% in March, slower than the previous month’s 3.6% and below the 4.9% in March last year. The food price index slowed to 2.7% in March, lower than the 3.8% in Feb and below the 8.5% in March last year. Rural inflation was at 3.3% in Feb while urban was at 3.4%.
The data showed that there is a decline of 27 basis points in headline inflation of March compared to Feb and it is the lowest year on-year inflation after Aug, 2019. There was a sharp decline of 106 basis points in food inflation in March compared to Feb and the food inflation during the month is the lowest after Nov, 2021.
The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of March, 2025 is mainly attributed to fall in inflation of vegetables, eggs, pulses & products, meat & fish, cereals & products and milk & products.
“With multi-year low inflation this month and benign inflation expectations going forward, we expect rate cuts of 50 basis points in June and Aug. We believe the cumulative rate cuts could be now more than 100 basis points with an increasingly uncertain growth environment,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI.
Experts said that they expect retail inflation to stay at comfortable levels due to easing food inflation but said the impact of geopolitical tensions and weather-related events need to be watched.
“Going ahead, we project CPI inflation to stay at comfortable levels supported by moderating food inflation. For FY26, we expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at rating agency CareEdge.
Separate data showed wholesale price inflation moderated to a 6-month low of 2.1% in March from 2.4% in feb due to lower food prices, providing fresh relief from the stubborn price pressures.





Source link

Post Views: 4
Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Comments

BUSINESS

Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year

Published

3 hours ago

on

April 19, 2025

By

Tamil Nadu’s installed power capacity increases by 3,000 MW this year


Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, while coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW.
| Photo Credit: N. Rajesh

Tamil Nadu’s total installed power capacity was 42,772.20 MW as on March 31 this year, increasing from the previous year’s 39,805.97 MW, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Of the total capacity this year, coal-fired power capacity was 12,835.49 MW. Of this, 4,320 MW was from the State sector, 5,490.17 MW from the private sector and 3,025.32 MW from the Central sector.

Tamil Nadu’s lignite-based thermal capacity stood at 1,959.16 MW, with a contribution of 1,709.16 MW from the Central sector and 250 MW from the private sector.

Gas-based power plants’ capacity was 1,027.18 MW, with 524.08 MW coming from the State Sector and 503.10 MW from the private sector. The private sector accounted for diesel-based power capacity of 211.70 MW. The State’s overall thermal power capacity stood at 16,033.53 MW as of March 31.

At a recent meeting held by Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) regarding the status of ongoing and upcoming Generation Projects in the State, officials from Tamil Nadu Power Generation Corporation Ltd (TNPGCL) stated that the commercial operation date of North Chennai Thermal Project Stage – III (1x800MW) and Udangudi Thermal Power Project Stage – I (2X660 MW) can be achieved in 2025 itself.

As per CEA data, 1,448 MW of nuclear power capacity came from the Central sector.

The State’s renewable energy installed capacity stood at 25,290.67 MW as of March 31. Of this, 11,739.91 MW was from wind energy, 10,153.58 MW was from solar energy, and 2,178.20 MW was from hydro projects. Biomass, and co-generation bagasse power plants, among others, accounted for the rest of the renewable energy capacity.

Gujarat has taken the lead in wind energy capacity for the second time in a row, with a capacity of 12,677.48 MW.

TNPGCL officials have also told TNERC that the commercial date of operation of Kundah Pumped Storage Hydro Electric Power Project (4 x 125 MW) will be achieved in 2025 itself.

TNERC has suggested that TNPGCL arrange for adequate manpower for smooth operation of new projects as per CEA norms.

Published – April 19, 2025 10:26 am IST



Source link

Post Views: 1
Continue Reading

BUSINESS

Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India

Published

3 hours ago

on

April 19, 2025

By

Is a US recession coming? 5 key questions answered – Times of India


Representative AI image via Lexica

The US economy may be heading into rough weather — and when America slows down, the world feels the tremors. With Trump tariffs putting global trade under pressure and India closely tied to both the US and China, a possible recession in the US can, at the very least, slow down growth rate in India too.Here’s what economists and investors are saying:
5 key questions answered

1. How close is US to a recession?

Five agencies and experts have following to say:

Agency Key Reasons
Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined at least 15 of the past 18 months; board says a “significant growth slowdown” is baked in, though a full recession is still not its base case Weakness across manufacturing new orders, consumer expectations, and building permits
Reuters economists’ poll of April 7 puts median probability of recession in next 12 months at 45% – highest since Dec 2023 Tariffs already shaving 0.8 percentage point off 2025 GDP forecasts; business sentiment and capex plans falling
Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi in a March 2025 podcast put recession odds at 40% by end-2025 Tariffs, fading fiscal impulse, and tight credit standards
Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers says odds of a 2008-style policy mistake are rising; warns “it’s best not to wait for NBER confirmation” 15-month slide in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, tariff shock to supply chains, and a deeply inverted 2-10 year Treasury curve
Ray Dalio, founder Bridgewater Associates, has said the US is “very close to a recession,” adding that tariffs are “like throwing rocks into the production system” and could lead to “something worse than a recession” if mishandled Tariff shock is crippling supply-chain efficiency; combines with ballooning US debt, a “breakdown of the monetary order,” and intensifying geopolitical conflict — conditions, Dalio says, mirror the 1930s

.

2. US recessions since 2000

Recession Peak Trough Duration (months) Real GDP peak-to-trough Peak Unemployment
Dot-com / 9-11 Mar 2001 Nov 2001 8 –0.3% 5.7%
Great Recession Dec 2007 Jun 2009 18 –4.0% 10.0%
Covid-19 Recession Feb 2020 Apr 2020 2 (shortest on record) –19.2% (q/q annualized Q2) 14.7%
.

3. Can US recession trigger global recessions?

US recessions can go global when they coincide with a systemic financial shock (2008) or an exogenous event (pandemic). Otherwise, spill-overs are milder. IMF has ruled out a global recession.

  • 2001 US recession did not cause a global one. World GDP grew 2.5%, but trade growth collapsed.
  • 2007–09 was a US & global recession — first post-war global contraction (~1.3% world GDP ’09)
  • 2020 Covid lockdown pushed world GDP down by ~3%, deepest since 1945

4. China & India recessions since 2000

Periods of outright GDP contraction (past 25 years)

China

  • Q1 2020 (–6.8% y/y) – first contraction since 1976
    Notes: Annual growth still +2.2% for 2020; 2022 growth just 3% (worst outside 2020)

India

  • FY 2020-21 (–7.3%, with –24% in April–June 2020); RBI classified H1 FY21 as a “technical recession”

Notes: Previous near-recessions

  • 1991 balance-of-payments crisis (real GDP +1%)
  • 2008-09 slowdown (growth fell to 3.1%, but stayed positive)

5. Why a recession in India is different from one in the US

Dimension United States India
General nature of primary shock Financial cycle & consumer credit (housing, credit cards); inventory cycle Supply-side shocks (oil, monsoon), external capital flows, informal-sector demand
Stabilising factors Large: Unemployment insurance, progressive taxes mitigate hit Small; Informal employment > 45% limits social-security reach
Monetary-policy pass-through Fast: Deep bond market, mortgage refinance Slower; Bank-led system, high share of small firms outside formal credit
Job & Wages Unemployment rises sharply but benefits cushion income Job losses push workers back into agriculture/informality, depressing under-employment more than jobless rate
Global spillover A US recession tightens global financial conditions via dollar funding & risk aversion An Indian recession mainly drags on regional trade, remittances, and commodity demand; financial contagion limited by capital controls





Source link

Post Views: 0
Continue Reading

BUSINESS

No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India

Published

6 hours ago

on

April 19, 2025

By

No plan for GST on 2,000+ UPI payments: Govt – Times of India


NEW DELHI: Govt on Friday clarified that it is not considering to levy GST on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. Clarifying on reports, which said govt is considering levying GST on UPI transactions over Rs 2,000, the finance ministry said they are false, misleading, and without any basis.
GST is levied on charges, such as Merchant Discount Rate (MDR), relating to payments made using certain instruments. Effective Jan 2020, the CBDT has removed MDR on person-to-merchant UPI transactions. “Since currently no MDR is charged on UPI transactions, there is consequently no GST applicable to these transactions,” the ministry said. UPI transaction values have seen an exponential increase, from Rs 21.3 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 260.6 lakh crore by March 2025.agencies





Source link

Post Views: 1
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025 Republic Diary. All rights reserved.