The volume growth of India’s FMCG industry has slowed down in the March quarter to 5.1%, driven by increased consumer purchases of small-value packs, according to the latest report from data analytics firm NielsenIQ.

Volume growth is slowing across categories, and non-food segments are still outpacing food in the FMCG sector. The industry reported a volume growth of 6.1% in the March quarter of 2024.

Moreover, continuing the trends from the last five consecutive quarters, the rural market, which is mainly a small economy pack units market, continued to grow faster than the urban market. However, its growth has also slowed down.

“In Q1 2025, rural consumer demand grew at a slower pace compared to Q1 2024, yet it remained four times faster than growth in urban areas, where consumption further decelerated. Rural markets continued to outperform urban counterparts across most regions of India,” it said.

The FMCG industry recorded higher unit growth than volume growth in the March quarter, indicating a consumer preference shift toward smaller pack sizes, according to the latest NielsenIQ FMCG quarterly snapshot.

In addition, small players — mostly unbranded — have gained ground, with double-digit volume growth, helped by the resurgence of the rural market, inflation, and changing market dynamics.

Overall, the FMCG sector reported an 11% year-on-year growth for the March quarter, in which volume growth contributed 5.1% along with a 5.6% increase in prices.

Besides sales volume through traditional trade, which includes kirana and neighbourhood shops, has increased. In the metro market, quick-commerce also strengthened its position.

“Food consumption growth slowed to 4.9% in Q1 2025 from 6% in Q4 2024, primarily due to decreased volumes in staple categories like edible oils and Palm Oil, which saw price increases,” it said.

On a year-on-year basis food consumption growth saw a slight improvement from 4.4% in Q1, 2024.

In the March quarter, the food sector reported 7.2% price growth, compared to 0.9% of the corresponding period a year ago.

Similarly, the Home and personal care (HPC) categories experienced a consumption growth of 5.7% in Q1 2025, driven by higher demand in rural areas. However, this growth is still lower than the 10.8% volume growth in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

While “Over-the-counter categories, such as rubefacients and analgesics, saw a 14% growth in value sales in Q1 2025, driven by a 10.4% increase in prices,” the report said. E-commerce continues to strengthen its presence, significantly impacting the share of offline channels, including modern trade (such as malls) and traditional trade.

“This growth is largely volume-driven, supported by increasing online shopper penetration, more purchase occasions, and increasing basket sizes,” it said.

In eight metros, e-com reported a 13% increase in the top 8 metros (based on data collected from 72 categories), while its all-India urban growth was at 5%.

March quarter also witnessed “steady gains” for small manufacturers, which are leading the way in driving consumption, supported by steady volume growth in both Food and HPC categories, it said.

“In contrast, larger players are experiencing slower volume growth, which has halved compared to Q4 2024. Low base, rural growth, and easing out inflation are helping small players to outpace FMCG growth,” the report said.

Small FMCG manufacturers having a turnover below ₹100 crore per year reported a volume growth of 11.9%, and mid players with a turnover between ₹100 to ₹1,000 crore reported a volume growth of 6.4%. Large manufacturers up to ₹5,000 crore recorded a 5.3% volume growth.

However, large FMCG makers, the giants with over ₹5,000 crore turnover, had 1.6% volume growth, which is much lower than the 8.1% volume growth. Though they still control 46% of the sales.

NielsenIQ India Head of Customer Success, FMCG, Roosevelt Dsouza said, “The FMCG sector is showing mixed signals — while volume growth is slowing across categories, non-food segments are still outpacing food. Inflation is easing overall, but high edible oil prices are keeping staples expensive. The rural markets continue to drive growth, whereas urban metros continue to see a shift toward e-commerce with higher shopper engagement.”

Global economic growth is set to slow in the coming months, with major economies such as the United States and China projected to experience notable deceleration. However, India is expected to outpace global peers amid this global downturn, according to a recent report by Kotak Alternate Asset Managers.The report forecasts a 90 basis point slowdown in the US economy and a 60 basis point decline for China, while highlighting that India is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy.A key factor supporting India’s economic resilience is its strong manufacturing performance, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures continuing to indicate positive momentum—setting India apart from many global counterparts.Despite mixed signals from high-frequency indicators, India’s overall macroeconomic outlook remains robust. Although credit growth and government expenditure have shown some moderation, the report points to other encouraging trends that continue to support economic activity.Among them is a favourable monsoon forecast, which is expected to lift rural demand and improve the inflation outlook, providing a timely boost to the agricultural sector.Indian equity markets have also displayed significant resilience, despite softer-than-expected Q4 FY25 earnings and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. The report notes that markets have rebounded sharply from recent lows.Investor sentiment remains buoyant, with Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continuing as net buyers and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) returning to net buying positions for the second consecutive month. A declining risk premium on Indian assets has contributed to expanding equity valuations.Still, the report cautions that volatility may persist in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.The Indian rupee (INR) has also gained strength against the US dollar, backed by a combination of factors such as a weaker dollar, renewed FPI inflows, and falling oil prices—all of which have improved India’s trade balance.However, the upside in the rupee has been partly capped by the Reserve Bank of India, which used the currency’s strength as an opportunity to build foreign exchange reserves. These reserves have surged by USD 50 billion, reaching USD 688 billion in just two months.Looking ahead, the narrowing yield gap between Indian and US 10-year bonds, along with sustained dollar weakness, is expected to keep the rupees relatively strong in the short term

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Asian Paints on Thursday (May 8, 2025) reported a 45% decline in consolidated net profit to ₹700.83 crore for the March quarter due to muted demand and increased competitive intensity in the market.

The company had logged a net profit of ₹1,275.30 crore in the January-March period last year, according to a regulatory filing by Asian Paints.

Its revenue from operations slipped 4.25% to ₹8,358.91 crore in the March 2025 quarter. It was ₹8,730.76 crore in the year-ago period.

During the quarter, “muted demand conditions and consumer sentiment coupled with downtrading, and increased competitive intensity impacted revenue”, Asian Paints said in its earnings statement.

Asian Paints’ total expenses fell marginally year-on-year to ₹7,276.60 crore in the March quarter.

Its total income, including revenue from other sources, declined 5.14% to ₹8,458.76 crore in the March 2025 quarter.

Its Managing Director and CEO, Amit Syngle, said the weak demand conditions prevalent for the past few quarters continued to affect the paint industry even in the last quarter of the financial year.

“The demand for decorative coatings was only marginally better than in the third quarter. The domestic decorative business registered a volume growth of 1.8%, but standalone revenues declined by 5%. The adverse mix and overall lower revenues impacted the quarter’s operating margins on a year-on-year basis,” he added.

However, the industrial business fared relatively better, growing by 6.1%, aided by growth in the General Industrial and Automotive coatings segment.

Asian Paints’ overall revenues from the coatings business in India declined by 4.1% in the quarter.

“Our home decor business faced multiple headwinds, resulting in a muted performance for the quarter,” he said.

In international markets, Asian Paints’ sales decreased in Q4 FY25 by 1.5% to ₹799.7 crore from ₹812.3 crore on the back of currency devaluation in Ethiopia, Egypt and macro-economic challenges in Bangladesh.

“While the overall macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we are cautiously optimistic about a recovery in demand conditions and continue to work diligently on leveraging our brand strength and driving operational efficiencies to pursue growth,” said Syngle.

For the financial year ended March 31, 2025, Asian Paints’ net profit dipped 33.25% to ₹3,709.71 crore. It was ₹5,557.69 crore a year ago.

In FY25, its total consolidated income of Asian Paints fell 4.7% to ₹34,478.23 crore.

Asian Paints, along with its subsidiaries, has operations in 14 countries with 26 paint manufacturing facilities. It serves in over 60 countries through Asian Paints, Apco Coatings, Asian Paints Berger, Asian Paints Causeway, SCIB Paints, Taubmans and Kadisco Asian Paints.

The board of the company on Thursday also recommended the payment of a final dividend of ₹20.55 per equity share of the face value of Re 1 each for FY25.

Shares of Asian Paints on Thursday settled at ₹2,302.50 on BSE, down 1.29% from the previous close.