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Looking beyond credit risk

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Looking beyond credit risk


Representative image
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it will allow SEBI-registered non-bank brokers to access its bond trading platform in yet another initiative to boost retail participation in government bonds. Previously,we discussed if government bonds were attractive investments. Here, we revisit this discussion from a core-satellite framework.

Reinvestment risk

Government bonds are credit-risk free. That is, you can be certain the government will pay interest and return the bond’s par value on time. But there are other factors to mull.

When you are investing for core (goal-based) portfolio, you must match the maturity of the bond with the time horizon of your life goal. That may be difficult as the RBI may not hold a bond auction matching your maturity need at the time you want to make a goal-based investment. True, you can buy a bond in the secondary market if RBI’s step to allow non-bank brokers takes off. But remember, bonds react to anticipated changes in interest rates; an anticipated dip in rate will lead to a rise in bond price and an anticipated increase in rate will lead to decrease in bond price. So, timing the purchase of bonds in the secondary market can be tricky.

Then, there is reinvestment risk. Suppose, you have to earn 4.5% compounded annual return to achieve a 10-year life goal. Simply investing in a 10-year government bond that earns the needed return will not be enough. This is because you may have to find investment avenues to reinvest the interest received as the required return is on a compounded annual basis. The risk is interest rate can dip in any year before the bond matures, and you will be unable to earn 4.5% on a compounded basis. Also, bonds pay semi-annual interest. The issue is more frequent interest payments in a year, the greater is reinvestment risk.

Conclusion

You must assume high level of reinvestment risk for eliminating credit risk when investing in these bonds. Bank recurring deposits and cumulative fixed deposits reduce reinvestment risk but expose you to some credit risk. While the decision on which investment product to choose is yours, be mindful that default on bank deposits is uncommon.

That said, if you are investing surplus cash (satellite portfolio) and do not mind the reinvestment risk, buying government bonds through primary auctions could be optimal.

(The author offers training programmes for individuals to manage their personal investments)



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Dollar rebounds as Trump eases Fed tensions, signals trade thaw with China – Times of India

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Dollar rebounds as Trump eases Fed tensions, signals trade thaw with China – Times of India


The US dollar rebounded on Wednesday, climbing against major currencies after President Donald Trump eased tensions over the Federal Reserve and trade with China. The shift offered investors much-needed relief, with market sentiment buoyed by Trump’s decision not to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell and speculation that trade tariffs on Chinese goods could be reduced.
The greenback had been under pressure, lingering near three-year lows amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies and repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve. However, comments from both Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a possible thaw in US-China relations and signalled a willingness to engage in deeper economic collaboration.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, said: “I have no intention of firing him,” referring to Powell. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.” The remark came after days of speculation over the Fed’s independence, which had rattled investors and triggered volatility in global markets.
The dollar index rose 0.297% to 99.86 in early Asian trading, before stabilising as cautious optimism returned. The euro slipped 0.86% to $1.132, reversing gains made earlier in the week. Helen Given of Monex USA said the renewed dialogue with China was a key factor: “People are very relieved that there’s potential for discussions between the two countries.”
Bessent reinforced that message in Washington, suggesting any easing of tariffs would not be unilateral and would depend on progress in talks with Beijing. He also voiced strong criticism of the IMF and World Bank but affirmed US support for their roles, distancing the Trump administration from earlier proposals advocating a US withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Trump hinted at further tariffs if no deals were made. “If we don’t have a deal… we’re going to set the tariff,” he said. He also suggested auto tariffs on Canada could increase, despite existing exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The markets responded positively. Dow futures jumped 1.9%, S&P 500 rose 2.6%, and Nasdaq gained 3% before the opening bell. Tech stocks surged, with Tesla up 7% after Elon Musk pledged to focus more on the company and less on Washington politics. Apple and Meta also rose sharply despite EU fines.





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U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary

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U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary


Ajay Seth, Finance Secretary.
| Photo Credit: ANI

The direct hit from tariffs introduced by Donald Trump’s administration on India could shave off between 0.2-0.5 percentage points from GDP growth, the country’s Finance Secretary Ajay Seth said on Wednesday (April 23, 2025).

“Now there is a sign of that…we grow about 6.5% in the current year,” said Mr. Seth, speaking at a Hudson Institute event on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.

“Second order (effects) would be important,” said Mr. Seth, referring to concerns that trade turmoil would slow global growth.

He added that he expected potential growth rate of around 7% could be achieved over the next decade, though India needed to expand its economy at a rate faster than that to achieve its ambitious longer-term targets.

Mr. Seth also said that the delegation from India was in town for further negotiations on trade with the U.S. administration, though he declined to giver further detail on what meetings were planned.



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ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India

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ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India


The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) has decided to review the financial statements of Gensol Engineering Ltd and BluSmart Mobility Pvt Ltd for the financial year 2023–24, following serious allegations of financial misconduct and governance lapses involving the two companies.
The move was confirmed by ICAI president Charanjot Singh Nanda, who said the decision was taken during a board meeting of the Financial Reporting Review Board (FRRB) on Wednesday.
Nanda told PTI that the FRRB decided to undertake a review of the financial statements and the statutory auditor’s report of Gensol Engineering and BluSmart Mobility for the financial year 2023-24.
The FRRB’s mandate includes assessing compliance with accounting standards, standards on auditing, and schedules II and III of the Companies Act, 2013. It also evaluates adherence to various guidance notes and RBI-issued master directions.
Gensol Engineering recently came under regulatory scrutiny after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) issued a market ban on the company’s promoters, Anmol Singh Jaggi and Puneet Singh Jaggi. The order, issued on April 15, alleged that the promoters siphoned off loan funds from the publicly-listed firm for personal gain, raising serious concerns about corporate governance and potential financial misconduct.
BluSmart Mobility, which operates a ride-hailing service, is also promoted by Anmol Singh Jaggi.
In case the FRRB identifies significant accounting irregularities during its review, the matter will be referred to ICAI’s Director Discipline for a detailed investigation. The findings may also be shared with relevant regulatory authorities.
Meanwhile, the ministry of corporate affairs said on April 21 that it will consider taking appropriate action against Gensol Engineering after examining Sebi’s order.
Under the Companies Act, 2013, the ministry has powers to act on corporate violations, which may include inspections by the Registrar of Companies or a probe by the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) in more serious cases.





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