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Is a US recession coming? 7 charts that show the plight of the American economy – The Times of India

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Is a US recession coming? 7 charts that show the plight of the American economy – The Times of India


A recent SBI Research report shows that the long term US GDP growth shows a declining trend. (AI image)

Is the US economy headed for a recession? A recession happens when an economy’s GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters. A recent SBI Research report shows that the long term US GDP growth shows a declining trend.
Concerns have risen about the economic outlook of the US post Trump’s tariff measures and cutting of spending and jobs. Economists view Trump’s trade conflict as a potential threat to the American economy, with possible consequences of increased consumer costs, reduced economic growth and diminished employment opportunities.
“The trends indicate that the jump in US economy post COVID may have been an outlier as a result of policy extravaganza…. Long trends indicate possible downturn in US economy,” says SBI in its latest report.

US Real GDP growth in long run

US Real GDP growth in long run

The report also cautions that, “the zealotry mission of departments like DOGE can undo a lot of ground works done in the previous decades, putting downward pressure on the beleaguered economy.” DOGE or the Department of Government Efficiency is an initiative of the US President Donald Trump and is headed by Tesla CEO and Trump advisor Elon Musk.

Drastically cutting Federal spending can be disastrous, says SBI report

Drastically cutting Federal spending can be disastrous, says SBI report

The economic uncertainty looms large, particularly noteworthy as it follows a period when the US economy demonstrated remarkable strength whilst managing the COVID pandemic crisis. So is the US economy headed for a recession? We take a look at some important data pointers in the SBI report on and the expected trends in the US economy based on long-term history:
What US economic data is pointing to
1) GDP growth trajectory: Analysis of US GDP growth reveals a downward trajectory, particularly evident since 2000, says the SBI report. America’s economic indicators suggest a reduction in potential GDP, alongside weakening demand and investment patterns.
The US economy has weakened over the past year, with GDP growth declining from 3.2% in Q4 2023 to 2.5% in Q4 2024, notes the SBI report.
2) Debt: Rising national debt levels have become increasingly significant, resulting in diminished private sector participation. Current trade policies involving tariffs are expected to create immediate challenges, without substantial improvement in GDP performance.

The debt to GDP ratio shows a secular rising trend, says SBI.

The debt to GDP ratio shows a secular rising trend, says SBI.

3) Reduced exports, consumption: Post-COVID US economic growth appears exceptional, attributed to extensive policy measures. Extended analysis suggests a probable decline in US economic growth, accompanied by reduced exports and consumption.
4) Savings to GDP ratio: Total factor productivity growth is diminishing, while value addition shows negative progression. Elevated wage levels might deter future investments. The savings-to-GDP ratio has reached its lowest point since 2011, marking the second-lowest figure since 1951.
January witnessed the first decline in consumer spending in nearly 24 months, whilst the goods trade deficit reached unprecedented levels due to businesses accelerating imports to avoid tariff implications, suggesting possible economic contraction this quarter. Consumer expenditure trends are expected to weaken in correlation with the projected overall GDP slowdown.

US Consumer Spending Drop

US Consumer Spending Drop

5) Stock market mayhem: The S&P 500 has given up its post-November election gains, with March 2025 projected to record the poorest monthly performance since the COVID-19 period.
US markets, including the S&P with a market capitalisation of approximately 52.9 trillion (February 2025), appear to have reached their limits after delivering exceptional returns. Investors are reassessing earnings forecasts amidst persistent volatility. The prominent ‘magnificent 7’ stocks display vulnerability following the Deep Seek event, with traditionally stable companies like Apple facing scrutiny of their safe-haven status, says the SBI report.

P/E multiples are stretched for most markets

P/E multiples are stretched for most markets

Investment flows are shifting towards more affordable markets as investors seek enhanced returns, evidenced by increased activity in mainland China and Hong Kong markets. Analysts anticipate possible corrections in overvalued markets. The ongoing series of reciprocal tariffs creates conditions for increased market instability in forthcoming periods.
US economy: What’s the long-term outlook?
The SBI report says that positive structural adjustments could potentially elevate GDP trends. Despite modest productivity improvements, increased national savings could enhance potential GDP. Private sector re-engagement combined with technological advancements could boost growth prospects, though initial adaptation periods may present challenges. The SBI report notes the following:

  • The US economy long-term trends in GDP indicate decline in potential GDP, demand and investments
  • The US indebtedness has sharply increased over the years, crowding out the private sector
  • Although high debt has not reflected in US dollar, which shows cyclical trends its strength has over the years has declined
  • The current tariff policy will have short term pain and US GDP will not see acceleration in material way
  • The economic rational of US DOGE is evident from long-term term trends
  • If the structural adjustment gains traction, then potential GDP trend can see a upward shift. The larger national savings that come from exercise despite nominal improvement in productivity can still push the potential GDP up. The crowding in of the private sector that follows along with technical progress can add significantly to growth prospects. However, this adjustment will have short term costs.





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U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary

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U.S. tariffs could shave up to half a percentage point off India GDP, says Finance Secretary


Ajay Seth, Finance Secretary.
| Photo Credit: ANI

The direct hit from tariffs introduced by Donald Trump’s administration on India could shave off between 0.2-0.5 percentage points from GDP growth, the country’s Finance Secretary Ajay Seth said on Wednesday (April 23, 2025).

“Now there is a sign of that…we grow about 6.5% in the current year,” said Mr. Seth, speaking at a Hudson Institute event on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.

“Second order (effects) would be important,” said Mr. Seth, referring to concerns that trade turmoil would slow global growth.

He added that he expected potential growth rate of around 7% could be achieved over the next decade, though India needed to expand its economy at a rate faster than that to achieve its ambitious longer-term targets.

Mr. Seth also said that the delegation from India was in town for further negotiations on trade with the U.S. administration, though he declined to giver further detail on what meetings were planned.



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ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India

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ICAI to review Gensol and BluSmart financial statements – Times of India


The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) has decided to review the financial statements of Gensol Engineering Ltd and BluSmart Mobility Pvt Ltd for the financial year 2023–24, following serious allegations of financial misconduct and governance lapses involving the two companies.
The move was confirmed by ICAI president Charanjot Singh Nanda, who said the decision was taken during a board meeting of the Financial Reporting Review Board (FRRB) on Wednesday.
Nanda told PTI that the FRRB decided to undertake a review of the financial statements and the statutory auditor’s report of Gensol Engineering and BluSmart Mobility for the financial year 2023-24.
The FRRB’s mandate includes assessing compliance with accounting standards, standards on auditing, and schedules II and III of the Companies Act, 2013. It also evaluates adherence to various guidance notes and RBI-issued master directions.
Gensol Engineering recently came under regulatory scrutiny after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) issued a market ban on the company’s promoters, Anmol Singh Jaggi and Puneet Singh Jaggi. The order, issued on April 15, alleged that the promoters siphoned off loan funds from the publicly-listed firm for personal gain, raising serious concerns about corporate governance and potential financial misconduct.
BluSmart Mobility, which operates a ride-hailing service, is also promoted by Anmol Singh Jaggi.
In case the FRRB identifies significant accounting irregularities during its review, the matter will be referred to ICAI’s Director Discipline for a detailed investigation. The findings may also be shared with relevant regulatory authorities.
Meanwhile, the ministry of corporate affairs said on April 21 that it will consider taking appropriate action against Gensol Engineering after examining Sebi’s order.
Under the Companies Act, 2013, the ministry has powers to act on corporate violations, which may include inspections by the Registrar of Companies or a probe by the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) in more serious cases.





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Ola Group surges in deep-tech, owns majority of patents granted to 117 unicorns

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Ola Group surges in deep-tech, owns majority of patents granted to 117 unicorns


Ola Founder Bhavish Aggarwal.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Ola Group, spanning ride-hailing, electric vehicles, and AI, now holds over 50% of all patents filed by India’s 117 unicorns.

India’s unicorns collectively hold only 229 patents, with Ola Group owning more than half, according to data from the Indian Patent Advanced Search (IPAS) System.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Ola Founder Bhavish Aggarwal shared, “Happy that Ola group @OlaElectric @Olacabs and @Krutrim have half of all granted patents for all Indian unicorns put together. Not happy with our number of 650 applied patents though. We will accelerate much much more in coming years!”

Sources close to Ola confirmed that the group has filed over 650 patent applications, with 180 already granted. This includes filings by Ola Electric, Ola Consumer, and Krutrim, with Ola Electric accounting for the lion’s share of about 70-80% of the total.

The report reveals that 101 of India’s unicorns have filed zero patents, spotlighting a heavy tilt in the startup ecosystem toward valuation and market capture rather than technology creation.

In this context, Ola Group’s IP portfolio stands out as an example of deep-tech commitment. Ola Electric, the EV arm, filed 205 patents in FY23 alone, making it India’s top patent filer in the electric vehicle sector. These patents span battery innovation, vehicle software, AI, safety systems, and more.

In FY23 alone, Ola Electric invested ₹507 crore in R&D, representing 19.3% of its annual revenue, a sharp rise from ₹175 crore the previous year. The company is set to further ramp up innovation spending, earmarking ₹1,600 crore for R&D between FY25 and FY27.

As stated in its IPO prospectus, “R&D and technology form the backbone of our business model.”

The group’s filings also extend globally, with patents granted and pending in the U.S., U.K., Japan, China, and Australia, positioning Ola as a global tech-driven company.



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