Cong faces a defining moment

The Congress party in the state stands on the cusp of a golden political opportunity—a once-in-a-lifetime chance to break free from the clutches of all casteist and communal forces and step into the role traditionally claimed by the Left. The self-serving general secretaries of NSS and SNDP have together set the political arena for this by betting heavily on CPM, which struggles to contain the growing anti-incumbency sentiments—the very tide on which Congress is staking its prospects in the next assembly election.

The Congress leadership need not worry about public acceptance or the electoral impact of taking a vocal and tough stand against communal and casteist forces. Caste-based organizations have long been rendered deadwood and Kerala society in general remains averse to mixing politics with religion. Marxist veteran E M S Namboothiripad had already demonstrated the electoral potential of ultra secularism by winning the1987 assembly election while keeping all communal elements at bay.

Just as the Supreme Court’s landmark judgment in the Shah Bano case triggered EMS to successfully challenge communal and casteist forces, today NSS General Secretary Sukumaran Nair and SNDP General Secretary Vellappally Natesan together offer a rare opportunity. The lukewarm response to the Global Ayyappa Sangamam proved them to be dead stock and highlighted the depth of anti-incumbency simmering in public consciousness.

Under its red shell, CPM has already lost its ideological ballast to power politics and fake narratives. It has outpaced Congress in courting casteist and communal forces. Now is the best time for the Congress to attempt a role reversal—by upholding secular credentials and universal brotherhood above all forms of parochialism—and still win the election without having done much justice to its own role. This, in the coming days, may be the only option left for the party.

However, Congress’s ability to claim the status of the most secular and progressive political force hinges on its resolve to show Muslim League and Kerala Congress their place within the coalition. Unless it musters the gumption and ideological clarity to dress up both as secular allies, opposition leader V D Satheesan’s defiance of the NSS and SNDP leaderships could end up as a quixotic misadventure. If Congress can convince Kerala voters of its secular credentials beyond doubt, it could win more than double the number of seats secured by its main ally, IUML, in the next election. That would place Congress in a comfortable position to live up to the secular ideals it can always fall back on.

CPM has opted to align with dominant Hindu caste leaderships due to their deep angst over strong anti-incumbency, which could end the party’s hopes for a third consecutive term, said academic and political commentator Damodar Prasad. “For Congress, this is a real opportunity. The party will have no obligation to satisfy the illegitimate demands of SNDP and NSS on any matter of concern. It can free itself from the shackles of regressive casteist forces and unburden itself from its characteristic submissiveness to these worn-out entities,” he said, adding that the caste leadership has no real moorings within their own communities.

But many veterans doubt Congress’s ability to execute a role reversal now that leftist ideologies have been deserted by CPM. “As always, Congress remains under the influence of IUML. The fact that Congress scions consider Wayanad a safe haven shows that the IUML has clear sway over the Congress high command as well. The party leadership is actually planning to win the assembly election with the help of minority communities. The selection of Sunny Joseph as KPCC president was part of this strategy. Kerala Congress (M), led by Jose K Mani, is also set to join UDF. With such a political and religious composition on its side, Congress will struggle to play the secular card convincingly,” said veteran journalist and writer Ramachandran.

Political scientist and psephologist G Gopakumar said it would be more than welcome if Congress showed the guts to bank solely and heavily on secularism and universal brotherhood. However, on the ground, the electoral advantage still lies with LDF and Congress and UDF will need to work in cohesion to reverse it to their benefit, he added.

“We cannot ignore BJP’s rising prospects. They have a clear edge in a number of assembly segments. If BJP manages to win a few seats, it could pose serious trouble to Congress-led UDF, than LDF. Unless Kerala Congress (M) joins back in UDF and leaders work diligently, even the anti-incumbency may not be enough for UDF to come to power,” he said, adding that Congress does not have credible mass leaders like EMS who could persuade the electorate of its secular credentials and ideological conviction.

END OF ARTICLE